ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[thetruesms]

Cor yeah I think alot of us have been coming and going, even most of the Mets on here seem uncertain about the exact path it will take.

By the way recon now finding pressures down to 998mbs, which would be rather impressive for a 30kts TD if thats what it turns out to be...

From a general standpoint yes, but with background pressures so low, it's not that big of a surprise that the central pressure will have to be lower than "usual"

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the size and structure are also creating a pressure mismatch (992mb normally equates to about 55-60 kt), although such is rare for a weak tropical storm/tropical depression.

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

[hurricaneCW]

That's impressive, it will take a while for the winds to respond though but I think TS Alex by tonight once again.

[BigA]

[pressure already reported]

[CrazyC83]

That's impressive, it will take a while for the winds to respond though but I think TS Alex by tonight once again.

Looking at its size, it might take a while, kinda like Ike in the Gulf when it had a pressure of 944mb and was a borderline Cat 1/2.

[Scorpion]

Hah, I wonder if theres ever been a borderline TD/TS that hasn't made landfall with 980's pressure

[timNms]

Take a look at the big picture with the WV loop. The convection kicking up over west Texas marks the western edge of the anticyclone high over the gulf. We may not see a linear track if Alex migrates around the western periphery of the high. 4 pm the track was 300 now probably 315. There is an ULL moving NW toward the Bahamas that probably will border the eastern side of the gulf high. Looks like a bad setup that will result in a dangerous storm.

Take a look at a higher res vis loop (enhanced).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html

There is actually an upper low over east TX. That will erode the ridge in a hurry.

AFM, I was just watching that upper low a few mins ago before you posted. I also noticed that it appears that the clouds from Alex are becoming elongated toward the NE (to my untrained eyes). In addition, I see the front extending down into Mexico. Now, I'm no expert, but I don't recall ever seeing a tropical system cross a front. So if the front makes it to the gulf, do you think it will turn Alex more toward the north or even NE?

[Dean4Storms]

You know what they say about looking at the outer band for future movement..well take a look..trough really digging

Definitely making a turn and I'm beginning to think the CMC/ GFS OP version is going to be closer.

[hurricanefloyd5]

991.6!!

234330 1916N 09109W 9244 00612 9916 216 137 050020 022 029 006 03

wow thats low for this low

[Cape Verde]

If a hurricane hits the upper Texas Gulf coast later this week, the public will be demanding to know why they weren't warned.

That's just the political reality.

Even now, I doubt 1% of the population of greater Houston has this system on their personal radar. National cable news is still calling it a Mexican storm and that it won't affect the oil spill efforts.

I don't know what the probabilities are, but it's not very hard to imagine a bad scenario.

[KWT]

Looks like the size and structure are also creating a pressure mismatch (992mb normally equates to about 55-60 kt), although such is rare for a weak tropical storm/tropical depression.

Yeah that seems amazingly low though, I mean for a 30-35kt system that has a pressure probably as low as some hurricanes, the pressure mismatch and the lower background pressure really is making a huge difference...

Actually the convective presentation does sorta remind me of Ike when it came off Cuba.

[drezee]

Cor yeah I think alot of us have been coming and going, even most of the Mets on here seem uncertain about the exact path it will take.

By the way recon now finding pressures down to 998mbs, which would be rather impressive for a 30kts TD if thats what it turns out to be...

From a general standpoint yes, but with background pressures so low, it's not that big of a surprise that the central pressure will have to be lower than "usual"

I will try and find some old picks of Opal from 95. This looks a lot like Opal when it started if I recall...had a similar pressure field when it came off the yucatan as well...

[vaffie]

Wow! 991 mb and they still haven't reached the center yet! 991 mb is the typical pressure of a typical 70-85 mph hurricane! This thing is going to ramp up very quickly! The pressure fall is also very gradual, which implies that it is going to have a large windfield!

[Wx_Warrior]

making a turn?

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, wonder what that type of pressure fed into the models brings about, that has to affect them.

[LaBreeze]

making a turn?

A turn in which direction?

[hurricaneCW]

Very unusual for late June, this is something I would normally expect in late July/August. Alex could be very dangerous indeed for Mexico/Texas and if it becomes a large and powerful hurricane, than it will affect the oil spill area even if it passes far enough to the west of it.

[KWT]

Hah, I wonder if theres ever been a borderline TD/TS that hasn't made landfall with 980's pressure

I really am not sure there are many, I'm sure there must be some but I think you could probably count on one hand systems that maybe 35kts and have pressures around 991mbs!

Also does look like its turning to the NW now, probably in response to the system reaching the water and the circulation beefing back up again.

[Wx_Warrior]

It was a response to the impression that some are claiming it's moving North.