ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Sambucol]

BP and Shell are evacuating some offshore platforms, as reported on the weather channel.

[Wx_Warrior]

don't see the ULL over east tx....i must be blind

[Nederlander]

don't see the ULL over east tx....i must be blind

look at the wv imagery.. its heading into LA now

[Wx_Warrior]

i have

[Dean4Storms]

don't see the ULL over east tx....i must be blind

It is now in LA.....

see this.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[Ivanhater]

Maybe so

Take a look at the big picture with the WV loop. The convection kicking up over west Texas marks the western edge of the anticyclone high over the gulf. We may not see a linear track if Alex migrates around the western periphery of the high. 4 pm the track was 300 now probably 315. There is an ULL moving NW toward the Bahamas that probably will border the eastern side of the gulf high. Looks like a bad setup that will result in a dangerous storm.

Take a look at a higher res vis loop (enhanced).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html

There is actually an upper low over east TX. That will erode the ridge in a hurry.

[LaBreeze]

don't see the ULL over east tx....i must be blind

It is now in LA.....

see this.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Could you please explain what sort of effect the ULL would have on Alex? I mean, if it is moving into LA, what does that do to Alex, if anything? Thanks.

[cycloneye]

00z BAMS

WHXX01 KWBC 280014
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0014 UTC MON JUN 28 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX (AL012010) 20100628 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100628 0000 100628 1200 100629 0000 100629 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 91.1W 20.4N 92.6W 21.2N 93.3W 21.7N 94.0W
BAMD 19.2N 91.1W 20.0N 92.1W 20.6N 92.9W 21.1N 93.7W
BAMM 19.2N 91.1W 20.1N 92.5W 20.8N 93.4W 21.2N 94.2W
LBAR 19.2N 91.1W 20.1N 92.3W 21.3N 93.8W 22.6N 95.6W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100630 0000 100701 0000 100702 0000 100703 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.3N 94.7W 23.3N 95.7W 24.8N 96.4W 27.5N 96.7W
BAMD 21.7N 94.6W 22.7N 96.4W 23.5N 97.6W 24.8N 98.5W
BAMM 21.8N 95.0W 22.8N 96.2W 24.2N 97.0W 26.8N 97.2W
LBAR 24.0N 97.3W 26.8N 99.6W 29.5N 100.1W 32.0N 98.5W
SHIP 68KTS 84KTS 86KTS 79KTS
DSHP 68KTS 84KTS 48KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 91.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 90.1W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.5N LONM24 = 88.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1004MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 60NM

[timNms]

don't see the ULL over east tx....i must be blind

It is now in LA.....

see this.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Could you please explain what sort of effect the ULL would have on Alex? I mean, if it is moving into LA, what does that do to Alex, if anything? Thanks.

If I understand this correctly, the ULL will weaken the ridge that is over the central gulf states, thus allowing Alex to take a more northerly track (hopefully NOT in our direction).

[brunota2003]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I think we are about to see a change in the models. Will Alex's pressure at 991mb, instead of 999, I believe we'll see more models shift northward (lower pressure, means it *should* be pulled further poleward). I would like to see a G-IV flight to help with inputting the conditions around Alex. The lack of data is probably part of the reason the models handle the system so differently...now that we are starting to get data, look for them to *start* coming into better agreement (though the ridge is a major problem still...)

I also think part of the reason for the pressure drop is it was strengthening as it made landfall, but the circulation was not very tight...then it moved over land and the circulation tightened, and helped nudge the pressure down some more. Possible? Dunno...I'm not a tropical expert!

[cycloneye]

Brunota,there will be a gulfstrean flight.Go to the recon discussion thread as today's plan of the day is there.

[LaBreeze]

Thanks for your input timNms.

[cycloneye]

[drezee]

NHC now looks like it is on the S side of the model consensus...

[brunota2003]

Thanks for that cycloneye, been gone the last few days, so havent really been keeping ontop of things, other than a quick glance at the NHC home page on my Blackberry!

[sphelps8681]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html[/quote]
Could you please explain what sort of effect the ULL would have on Alex? I mean, if it is moving into LA, what does that do to Alex, if anything? Thanks.[/quote]

If I understand this correctly, the ULL will weaken the ridge that is over the central gulf states, thus allowing Alex to take a more northerly track (hopefully NOT in our direction).[/quote]

So does this mean that is where the weakness is and Alex will be drawn there?

[Dean4Storms]

don't see the ULL over east tx....i must be blind

It is now in LA.....

see this.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Could you please explain what sort of effect the ULL would have on Alex? I mean, if it is moving into LA, what does that do to Alex, if anything? Thanks.

It should help to weaken the ridge along the upper gulf coast but then that was expected anyway with the trough dropping.

[timNms]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Could you please explain what sort of effect the ULL would have on Alex? I mean, if it is moving into LA, what does that do to Alex, if anything? Thanks.[/quote]

If I understand this correctly, the ULL will weaken the ridge that is over the central gulf states, thus allowing Alex to take a more northerly track (hopefully NOT in our direction).[/quote]

So does this mean that is where the weakness is and Alex will be drawn there?[/quote]

You'll have to ask someone that knows more about this stuff than I do This is what I think about it, but I could be wrong.

[tolakram]

I didn't see this posted:



from Jeff Masters blog: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1521

Why am I missing the stellar performance of the Euro?

[ROCK]

I must say this would be the biggest EURO bust since Charley in 04 if this comes to fruition.....