ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

[CrazyC83]

Still at 991mb, so it is pretty much steady state - probably rapidly deepened before landfall after the 996mb, then held steady over land.

[brunota2003]

Though instead of hitting 991.0, it hit 990.7 this time (don't know if that is important or not...)

[cycloneye]

42 kt FL, 48 kt SFMR. We need 46 kts at flight level.

[CrazyC83]

The SFMR suggests a 45-50 kt intensity, but the FL winds only support 30 kt. I would go with 40 kt for the intensity if nothing else changes.

[AdamFirst]

They just hit 48kts flight level...

Correction, that was SFMR, not flight level...

[brunota2003]

31.5kts is what 42kts flight level comes out to with a 75% reduction.

[cycloneye]

The first two passes have been almost at the same spot.

[brunota2003]

Recon just found flight level winds of 46 knots.

[cycloneye]

There you have it.TS Alex at 10 PM CDT advisory.

[CrazyC83]

With the SFMR of 48, I'd almost be willing to go up to 45 kt...maybe hold it at 40 though...

[ROCK]

I agree Luis....TS it is and only getting stronger...

[brunota2003]

They setting up for another pass from NW to SE? How much longer do they have left?

[clfenwi]

They setting up for another pass from NW to SE? How much longer do they have left?

POD showed the operational part of the flight lasting until 06Z.

[brunota2003]

Until 2 am? Nice.

[mvtrucking]

Until 2 am? Nice.

1 AM CDT correct? (6z)

[cycloneye]

Here comes the third pass from NW to SE.

[cycloneye]

Pressure mantains at 991 mbs at third pass.

[clfenwi]

Most recent fix

A. 28/02:54:30Z
B. 19 deg 14 min N
091 deg 13 min W

First fix

A. 27/23:45:00Z
B. 19 deg 13 min N
091 deg 06 min W

7 nautical miles to the west in just over three hours...

[cycloneye]

In other words, not moving much at this time.

[HURAKAN]

Maybe reforming the center