ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[mvtrucking]

Big Upper level low over LA digging SE...

No, it is helping erode the ridge in the gulf on the west side. This is collapsing to steering currents that was pushing Alex wnw.

So it will probably just continue to stall?

[Nederlander]

Is the ULL a surprise to anyone?

My question is what does this mean for the anticyclone structure above Alex, and the intensity forecast.

we saw the ULL earlier today over east texas.. i didnt expect it to dig any further south but i guess it is.. this is beating that ridge up bad.. like someone said, Alex is without any major steering currents for the time being, hence the near stationary wobbling around.. I cant answer about the anticyclone, thats out of my league..

[coreyl]

If the ridge erodes, that would cause the storm to move north right?

[Nederlander]

If the ridge erodes, that would cause the storm to move north right?

yes.. but i think the models are picking up on the ridge building back west pretty strong once the trough is out of the way..

also, on a side note.. notice the big pocket of dry air in the GOM just east of the TX/MX border.. this could hurt Alex's chance for strengthening

[Time_Zone]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or am I seeing a slight NNW jog? Although it's going VERY, very slowly...perhaps just a wobble.

[Nederlander]

personally, I think the longer Alex is stationary, the better the chance for a MX landfall.. Alex isnt going to get picked up by that trough if he's just sitting on the coast of the yuc like that..

[Nederlander]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or am I seeing a slight NNW jog? Although it's going VERY, very slowly...perhaps just a wobble.

Look at the wv.. thats the easiest way for me to tell.. it looks pretty stationary.. even perhaps slightly SW.. but i think THAT is just a wobble.. the core isnt solid right now so its going to wobble here and there..

[xcool22]

NNW MOVE

[SoupBone]

NNW MOVE

NNW MOVE

You're weeble wobble watching my friend. This storm isn't going anywhere for the next few hours at least.

[xironman]

Looks like Alex is ready to rebuild that core.

[Nederlander]

NNW MOVE

NNW MOVE

You're weeble wobble watching my friend. This storm isn't going anywhere for the next few hours at least.

I agree.. dont pay attention to just the center.. pay attention to the system as a whole.. it aint moving.. i think its enjoying a few cervezas on the beach..

[Time_Zone]

Still seeing a NNW wobble....lol

[Nederlander]

Still seeing a NNW wobble....lol

I dont want to take up a hundred pages with wobble watching lol.. but if anything the center has moved slightly south.. i just dont think its moving at all..

[xcool22]

i'm used Satellite Enhanced Water Vapor much better.

[Time_Zone]

Still seeing a NNW wobble....lol

I dont want to take up a hundred pages with wobble watching lol.. but if anything the center has moved slightly south.. i just dont think its moving at all..

NO! IT WOBBELED TO THE NORTH DAMNIT!!! jk

But seriously you're right, enough 'wobble watching' it's far too early for that. Back to Alex.

[Time_Zone]

"my confidential weather modification source says "Alex" is
going to be hit very hard with track alteration and unexplained
weakening to be expected. [laughs]

also that "ALEX" will not be allowed to hold any status above CAT1.

I am told landfall will be south of Brownsville right at the Mexican Border
possibly wed evening is my info.

a scenario similar to Dolly but further south and much weaker.

it will be interesting to see if this information pans out.

i have seen enough weather modification of hurricanes in the atlantic
in the last few years to make me a believer though."




Random poster....does this guy know something we dont? or is he talking out of his ass?

[KWT]

Convection blowing up deeper over the center though its perhaps still a little close to land to really blow up.

Should see quicker strengthening soon....also looks like the system is in very slack upper conditions as the upper high fights to stay in charge against the ULL.

[somethingfunny]

I've been intensely studying the wobbles....and I have concluded that Alex is moving SW, but also moving NNW.

It's gyrating clockwise around a central point. For all practical purposes he's stalled out worse than a Kia Rio in the left lane of the freeway on a hot day in June.

[somethingfunny]

It sure is convenient that Alex juuuuuuust barely made it offshore before stalling. Imagine if this had happened 20 miles to the southeast and Alex just withered away over land......every model busted, every forecast kaput; we could have driven the North American crow to extinction because so many would have been eaten.

But Alex is here and he's popping off some cold cloudtops, biding his time now.

[KWT]

Mind you it maybe the case the shear has increased a little as well which is holding the convection back in exactly the same spot whilst the circulation is ever so slowly moving NW, but we need to wait till the Vis.imagery comes in first.