ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[KWT]

Yeah the GFDL is too quick, unless this system gets moving soon then it could come off, still what is interesting is its a stronger run.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF south of Brownsville now, UKMET Brownsville. No need to worry too much up here along the Upper TX coast.

Much closer than 00z?

[americanre1]

Isn't that forward speed an extrapolation of the past 12 hours or 18 hours?? So with the forward speed going down, that means that it has slowed down over that time actually more, correct?

[Dean4Storms]

If Alex continues this slow pace all day you can disregard many of these models.

what further south...thats all I can think of...

Depends on how long he either sits there or snail paces it.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET

Brownsville

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.06.2010

TROPICAL STORM ALEX ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 91.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.06.2010 20.0N 91.7W MODERATE
00UTC 29.06.2010 21.2N 92.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.06.2010 22.7N 92.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.06.2010 24.3N 94.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2010 25.3N 96.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.07.2010 26.2N 98.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.07.2010 26.3N 101.1W BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENTH

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the Euro may score a win if these trends hold.

[AJC3]

Looks like the Euro may score a win if these trends hold.

Given the Euro has trended slightly toward the north over the past day or two, I think the models that will wind up with the smallest errors will probably be one of the consensus (or corrected consensus) models such as TCON, TVCN or TCCN.

[KWT]

I'm not so sure PTrackerLA, I'm willing to bet that if the current trend is true it'll be closer to the GFS solution than it will be to at least some of the very deep ECM solutions, remember some ECM solutions had this down making landfall at 20N...which is probably worse then the GfS Landfalling in SE Texas in terms of error.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS had NGOM for awhile & it wasn't until today that the GFS trended south.

[ROCK]

why is the EURO breaking a piece of energy off at the upper TX coast at 120hr....huh?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z EURO makes landfall just south of Brownsville!!

[cycloneye]

18z BAMS


WHXX01 KWBC 281809
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1809 UTC MON JUN 28 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX (AL012010) 20100628 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100628 1800 100629 0600 100629 1800 100630 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.3N 91.7W 21.3N 92.7W 22.5N 93.9W 23.4N 95.1W
BAMD 20.3N 91.7W 20.9N 92.5W 21.6N 93.8W 22.3N 95.2W
BAMM 20.3N 91.7W 21.2N 92.6W 22.3N 93.8W 23.2N 95.0W
LBAR 20.3N 91.7W 21.3N 92.4W 22.8N 93.8W 24.5N 95.4W
SHIP 50KTS 58KTS 66KTS 72KTS
DSHP 50KTS 58KTS 66KTS 72KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100630 1800 100701 1800 100702 1800 100703 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.1N 96.4W 25.0N 99.1W 25.8N 102.4W 26.2N 104.4W
BAMD 23.0N 96.7W 23.9N 99.6W 24.5N 102.6W 25.1N 105.1W
BAMM 24.0N 96.4W 25.1N 99.2W 25.9N 102.3W 26.7N 104.5W
LBAR 26.2N 96.6W 29.5N 98.0W 31.5N 97.4W 32.8N 95.8W
SHIP 77KTS 81KTS 73KTS 59KTS
DSHP 77KTS 57KTS 30KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.3N LONCUR = 91.7W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 19.5N LONM12 = 91.4W DIRM12 = 332DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 18.9N LONM24 = 90.7W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$

[ROCK]

models still converging STX..just about time to throw out a more north scenario now....

[ROCK]

18z BAMS


WHXX01 KWBC 281809
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1809 UTC MON JUN 28 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX (AL012010) 20100628 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100628 1800 100629 0600 100629 1800 100630 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.3N 91.7W 21.3N 92.7W 22.5N 93.9W 23.4N 95.1W
BAMD 20.3N 91.7W 20.9N 92.5W 21.6N 93.8W 22.3N 95.2W
BAMM 20.3N 91.7W 21.2N 92.6W 22.3N 93.8W 23.2N 95.0W
LBAR 20.3N 91.7W 21.3N 92.4W 22.8N 93.8W 24.5N 95.4W
SHIP 50KTS 58KTS 66KTS 72KTS
DSHP 50KTS 58KTS 66KTS 72KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100630 1800 100701 1800 100702 1800 100703 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.1N 96.4W 25.0N 99.1W 25.8N 102.4W 26.2N 104.4W
BAMD 23.0N 96.7W 23.9N 99.6W 24.5N 102.6W 25.1N 105.1W
BAMM 24.0N 96.4W 25.1N 99.2W 25.9N 102.3W 26.7N 104.5W
LBAR 26.2N 96.6W 29.5N 98.0W 31.5N 97.4W 32.8N 95.8W
SHIP 77KTS 81KTS 73KTS 59KTS
DSHP 77KTS 57KTS 30KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.3N LONCUR = 91.7W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 19.5N LONM12 = 91.4W DIRM12 = 332DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 18.9N LONM24 = 90.7W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$

Luis the graph is not update with 18z BAMM runs....0z still

[South Texas Storms]

so it looks like the models are agreeing on a landfall just south of brownsville?

[txagwxman]

If Alex continues this slow pace all day you can disregard many of these models.

what further south...thats all I can think of...

If it doesn't get up here fast enough, the ridge that builds by Thursday will definitely block it from coming north.

[Big O]

12Z EURO makes landfall just south of Brownsville!!

It is further south than the 0z run. May feel minimal impacts in Brownsville if this trend continues.

[americanre1]

18z BAMS


$$
[/b]

Looking at these models, they almost all have it turning N and then NE once making landfall, so if this system stalls where it is right now, won't that cause it to do the turn over the Gulf and cause all of them to be off by just about 100 miles.

[ROCK]

If Alex continues this slow pace all day you can disregard many of these models.

what further south...thats all I can think of...

If it doesn't get up here fast enough, the ridge that builds by Thursday will definitely block it from coming north.

OR the ridge settles in, another SV breaks it down then north we go....that would be a shocker...

[cycloneye]

Rock,that graphic always is slow to update.Keep refreshing it.