ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Flyinman]

WTNT81 KNHC 281738
TCVAT1

ALEX WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

.TROPICAL STORM ALEX

TXZ251-256-257-282100-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
100 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

MOUTH-OF-THE-RIO-GRANDE-RIV-TX 25.96N 97.15W
BAFFIN-BAY-TX 27.29N 97.38W

$$

ATTN...WFO...BRO...


Let the watches and warnings begin..Still very strange for June

[BigA]

Hurricane force wind in upper levels of the NE quad according to last Vortex 66 knots= 75.9mph just a sign of him ramping up....although the surface does not even translate....i'm looking for a pressure drop soon

That vortex is pretty old. I think the storm has deteriorated since then, though it looks to be in a pretty steady state right now.

[HURAKAN]

Covering the GoM

[Ivanhater]

Alex has made it a dreary rainy day in Pensacola today...quite a large system

[SunnyThoughts]

Im loving this rainy cloudy day today in Pensacola...and so does my A/C unit.

[KWT]

Hurricane force wind in upper levels of the NE quad according to last Vortex 66 knots= 75.9mph just a sign of him ramping up....although the surface does not even translate....i'm looking for a pressure drop soon

That vortex is pretty old. I think the storm has deteriorated since then, though it looks to be in a pretty steady state right now.

Yeah it looks to me like its probably held about the same in the last 4-6hrs or so...

Hopefully the system can't ramp up as quickly as feared, if it doesn't then some of the ideas of a major will become at least a little bit less likely.

[N2Storms]

An interesting exerpt from the Tallahassee NWS:


NOW FOR THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE (FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW) TO
FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF VORTICITY/MOISTURE TO BREAK OFF
FROM ALEX AND ESSENTIALLY MERGE WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH WINDS AND SEAS AND A
LOT OF HEAVY RAIN. THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP ALEX SEPARATE FROM THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND
LESS RAIN THAT IS MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

[KWT]

Will be interesting to see whether the gulf stream data will have any effect on the 0z runs tomorrow.

Anyway we need to watch to see whether the system can strengthen during D-Max tonight.

[Weatherfreak000]

I wonder if the possibility of the split low scenario is playing out? That would certainly be interesting if the GFS picked up on that. It would certainly make it the most accurate model thus far.

[ROCK]

I wonder if the possibility of the split low scenario is playing out? That would certainly be interesting if the GFS picked up on that. It would certainly make it the most accurate model thus far.

Alex is having an offspring? now that would be one for the record book and would make for a good movie..."Spurious Lows" any one...

[Wx_Warrior]

Got it give it to 'Freak....he's consistent & not giving up on his beliefs.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I wonder if the possibility of the split low scenario is playing out? That would certainly be interesting if the GFS picked up on that. It would certainly make it the most accurate model thus far.

Alex is having an offspring? now that would be one for the record book and would make for a good movie..."Spurious Lows" any one...

Haha i like it. Just took a look at the radar loops. This storm needs to start moving soon or someone is gonna have an evil storm on their hands. I know a stationary storm draws up cooler water, but it can still gain plenty of strength in the mean time. Remember Wilma blew up while she was stationary. NOT COMPARING THESE TWO for many numerous reasons but still.....

[txagwxman]

Alex has made it a dreary rainy day in Pensacola today...quite a large system

Very...wind field takes up the entire Gulf...

[KWT]

It will be interesting to see just how long it stalls for, every bit longer it stalls the more likely it is to stay south...well to a degree thats the case anyway providing the upper high does build and stay the course...

[SunnyThoughts]

[johngaltfla]

What concerns me is that there doesn't appear to be a true consensus on which direction it begins to move after the stall. It's as if we're starting over with a brand new storm and like I said the other day, we won't have a clue until it reorganizes on the other side of the Yucatan. Yo' Alex. Make your mind up dude, fizzle is ok with me.

[bghowie]

Is the convection that is being seen in the GoM the result of alex or something else? I think this will be a storm to effect the whole gulf no matter where it hits. just my .02

[ConvergenceZone]

I actually feeling quite a bit better about this system than I did last night. Last night I saw a system that was already getting its act together quicklymoving steadily towards the Texas/Mexico border. Today I just see a stalled disorganized system with a couple of the models trending south.

[dhweather]

Is the convection that is being seen in the GoM the result of alex or something else? I think this will be a storm to effect the whole gulf no matter where it hits. just my .02

There's an upper level low over SELA / Southern Miss that is contributing to the massive amount of weather in the Gulf. Alex brought a great deal of moisture into the gulf, give him credit.

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR