ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

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tolakram
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1821 Postby tolakram » Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:44 pm

If Derek were here he would say Euro was right for all the wrong reasons. Just because a model, any model, had an x near where the storm is now does not make it correct.
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#1822 Postby wxman22 » Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:46 pm

KWT wrote:Well good ole NAM throwing out another different solution, that being said if Alex does not move for a while there will be a chance that the system will end up not getting totally driven west into landfall and then you always run the risk of a trough picking the system up...

Thats a very small risk event but a couple of models have hinted at it now and then.


Yea I think thats my only concern that it stalls too long and waits for a trough to pick it up...
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1823 Postby Nederlander » Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:47 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:HOU said GFS finally joined the EURO camp.


Once again the euro was wrong...look at the huge weakness right now all the way to the upper texas coast....the gfs and cmc saw this..not the euro

The cmc and gfs saw the trough progressing as far south and east as it is now....euro saw nothing but a solid ridge with no breakdown..how some of you say the euro verified I have no clue


I could not agree agree more Ivan.. The Euro looks to have stumbled upon this one.. it may end up verifying, but like you said, for all the wrong reasons.. the gfs and cmc saw the break down, the euro did not.. if Alex was moving at faster pace, this would be an upper tx/la threat.. the euro was bullish on the ridge staying put the entire time..
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1824 Postby KWT » Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:48 pm

tolakram wrote:If Derek were here he would say Euro was right for all the wrong reasons. Just because a model, any model, had an x near where the storm is now does not make it correct.


True but in the world of statistical verification all that will matter is how close/far away the system was, the ECM was still right as you say but not for the right synoptic evolution...it lucked out in other words...
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#1825 Postby lester » Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:49 pm

Image

18z GFS at 48 hours
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#1826 Postby southerngale » Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:51 pm

The ridge that is supposed to build in the central U.S. and keep Alex from progressing north - how long is it forecast to stick around?
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1827 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:53 pm

operational gfs - landfall corpus
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1828 Postby AJC3 » Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:54 pm

A good way to address the "right for the wrong reason" posts would be to look at a comparison of anomaly correlation scores for global model 500MB height forecasts for this week when they eventually come out. They're available on HPC's model verification page, I don't have the link handy.
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#1829 Postby KWT » Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:54 pm

The 18z GFS a touch east of its 12z position probably due to a slightly slower forward speed on this run, I did think it was a bit quick in the last run and that was reflected in the 12z GFDL as well...
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1830 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:59 pm

Ivan just likes to give me a hard time...LOL

Waiting for the PARA Gfs...its runs a little slower.
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#1831 Postby KWT » Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:00 pm

Para GFS looks like its on track for a N.Mexico hit, probably won't be that far south of the border however.
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#1832 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:01 pm

im confused...is that the latest run of the GFS-operational? I could have sworn landfall was south of Brownsville on the last run. correct me if I'm wrong.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1833 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:02 pm

18z operational gfs (84h)

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Re:

#1834 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:06 pm

southerngale wrote:The ridge that is supposed to build in the central U.S. and keep Alex from progressing north - how long is it forecast to stick around?


Good question, I was wondering the same thing. Concerned if Alex hangs around long enough he very well could not be done after landfall. Just say for example he goes ahead and makes landfall in south TX but then the high shifts east and weakens with another sw trough moving across tx pulling TD Alex back over the gulf NE towards the north gulf states. I know chances are about 1% but it is just a question.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1835 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:07 pm

para gfs 60h

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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1836 Postby wxman22 » Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:08 pm

18z GFS is similar to the 18z NAM it sort of has it riding the coast...

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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1837 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:08 pm

18z operational gfs much more north than 12z run right?
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#1838 Postby KWT » Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:08 pm

18z Para shows exactly what I was wondering about, system takes so long to move that the steering current start to slacken again in about 60hrs time after a stronger WNW drive. The 18z Para will probably have just enough ummphh in the upper high to send it inland but may stall the system just inland as another upper trough tries to nudge in.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1839 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:15 pm

gfs para 72h

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#1840 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:18 pm

Just checking in. Looks like model consensus has gotten better throughout the day on a Northern Mexico landfall. Seems quite reasonable to me given the ridge that is expected to build in. At least the models are converging on a solution and we know the ones that had it going to Houston/Galveston/SE Texas/SW LA just were not seeing something (now they are).
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