ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[deltadog03]

One thing to watch for is IF** Alex slows enough there might be a breakdown in the ridge that will rebuild in and could force him towards a S TX landfall. As I have said all along, speed is very much the key in this forecast. There will be another trof coming down after the ridge builds in temp.

[ROCK]

Just checking in. Looks like model consensus has gotten better throughout the day on a Northern Mexico landfall. Seems quite reasonable to me given the ridge that is expected to build in. At least the models are converging on a solution and we know the ones that had it going to Houston/Galveston/SE Texas/SW LA just were not seeing something (now they are).

IF Alex sits for another 18 hrs all of these models AND I mean all can be thrown in my Weds trash....

the only reason they are left is because its been sitting here all day....sits another day then what....

[Tireman4]

Just checking in. Looks like model consensus has gotten better throughout the day on a Northern Mexico landfall. Seems quite reasonable to me given the ridge that is expected to build in. At least the models are converging on a solution and we know the ones that had it going to Houston/Galveston/SE Texas/SW LA just were not seeing something (now they are).

IF Alex sits for another 18 hrs all of these models AND I mean all can be thrown in my Weds trash....

the only reason they are left is because its been sitting here all day....sits another day then what....

Then we sit and sit and sit....LOL

[South Texas Storms]

what do you guys think the farthest north landfall alex will make?

[ROCK]

One thing to watch for is IF** Alex slows enough there might be a breakdown in the ridge that will rebuild in and could force him towards a S TX landfall. As I have said all along, speed is very much the key in this forecast. There will be another trof coming down after the ridge builds in temp.

would agree with that statement. The GFS and NAM are sniffing it...

[KWT]

As Deltadog has said, this system is a very locse run thing because the upper high doesn't all that long according to some of the models before another upper trough tries to displaced it. The ECM has none of it though but it has got a bias (documented by NOAA btw) of holding back shortwaves a little too long.

Still as Gatorcane said the general solution from most of models is N.Mexico, just need to be aware even a small shift will bring Brownsville a tropical cyclone to its doorstep.

[lonelymike]

[quote="funster"]Euro is a total fail. Was trying to drive Alex almost due west from the get go. There is no way it deserves an accuracy prize if Alex comes in around Brownsville. Instead Euro eats crow and gets a fail lame "you are a loser model" award. It also gets laughed at by a parade of 1,000 clowns.[/quote)

Intellectualily stimulating and well thought out posts like this are why I look forward to coming to S2K every nite.

[lonelymike]

If Derek were here he would say Euro was right for all the wrong reasons. Just because a model, any model, had an x near where the storm is now does not make it correct.

Go ask him he's around.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Euro is a total fail. Was trying to drive Alex almost due west from the get go. There is no way it deserves an accuracy prize if Alex comes in around Brownsville. Instead Euro eats crow and gets a fail lame "you are a loser model" award. It also gets laughed at by a parade of 1,000 clowns.[/quote)

Intellectualily stimulating and well thought out posts like this are why I look forward to coming to S2K every nite.

GFS sure dont!! Hell it had a Freeport/Matagorda landfall yesterday!!!!!!!

[deltadog03]

To be honest no model is really doing that good....one simple reason is because of the speed he is moving right now.

[vaffie]

Part of the reason no model is doing well and will do well is that the system is so huge and is still quite disorganized, with a massive band still wrapping around...for it to start moving west or northwest or anything it is going to need a huge push, and that's not going to happen any time soon. So it is going to simply befuddle everyone and drift ever so slightly northward for now, eventually being pushed ever so slightly westward.

[tolakram]

I don't understand model worship at all. I'm simply an amateur but frankly I don't like any of the models. It seems each of them will have some kind of yearly bias and show it throughout the season. The GFS can't find the storm half the time and the Euro sometimes gets the location right but for all the wrong reasons. All the while the Canadian is hitting New Orleans.

I think sticking to any one model is silly and makes for useless arguments. In this case either the ridge stays strong, or rebuilds, or not. Take a pick. And even the model that gets the ridge right might not get Alex's location right.

Where are the darts?

[clfenwi]

18Z HWRF forecasts a similar landfall location as the 12Z, but with slower timing. Seems like that's (at least part of) the cause for it intensifying Alex more.


Comes in on a northwest trajectory.

[Air Force Met]

GFS had Freeport yesterday. I have some pro mets nearby

Well here's one and I will tell you you are splitting hairs because the GFS showed a US landfall and the Euro didn't. Its as simple as that.

As I have said...and as anyone who knows me will tell you...I am a Euro pimp...but you are splitting hairs. The difference isn't that much.

Lets assume its goes where the NHC track is...and that is an assumption only.

Lets look at 27/12Z run (since you said yesterday).The GFS has a right bias of about 300 miles. BUT the Euro had a LEFT bias of 200 miles. Now...that is a win...but is is hardley a coup.

Let's look at 26/00Z. The Euro is bringing it in down near 21.5N on Wed morning...while the GFS went for the middle Tx coast sometime Thursday evening. Who won that one? GFS is a clear winner.

At 27/00...the Euro is about 100 miles off and good with timing. The GFS maintains the SE TX solution. Euro winds this one hands down.

Now...IF and that is a certain hypothetical if but for the sake of debate we can talk about it...IF Alex had not stalled today...and had moved at the 9 kts he was forecast to move at...he is sitting up at about 22.5N right now instead of 20.5...and chances are he is stronger since he is away from land a little more. Now...assume he just follows the same NHC track...only extrapolated since he didn't stall...and only the NAM called for that (and do we really want to go there? Following the NAM?)...then this is what happens:

The models...INCLUDING the Euro...do not shift back to the south. The NHC tracks continues to shift north...and we are talking right now about a forecasted path somewhere N of BRO. Why? All of the models would have been initialized with the north movement...etc...etc...etc.

Stalls are very difficult to forecast and systems often times do them unexpectedly. The EURO didn't see the stall...and neither did the GFS (although I think the para gfs did should some meandering...but towards the NW and W). Had this stall not happened...the GFS would still have been too far to the right...and the EURO too far to the left...but the GFS would have been closer.

The Euro owes this win to a stall...nothing more.

[clfenwi]

As before, have the text before seeing the graphics, but 18Z GFDL's forecast landfall location is 1° north of the 12Z forecast. Just south of the border.

WHXX04 KWBC 282323
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALEX 01L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.3 91.7 335./ 4.1
6 20.6 91.8 357./ 3.4
12 21.2 91.9 348./ 6.5
18 22.4 92.1 352./11.3
24 23.5 92.8 330./13.5
30 24.5 93.6 319./11.8
36 24.9 94.5 292./ 9.2
42 25.2 95.2 293./ 7.3
48 25.3 96.2 278./ 9.3
54 25.5 96.7 287./ 4.3
60 25.7 97.8 281./10.5
66 25.6 98.6 269./ 7.1
72 25.6 99.5 269./ 7.7
78 25.6 100.3 269./ 7.4
84 25.8 101.9 276./15.0
90 26.1 103.3 283./12.8
96 26.5 104.3 290./ 9.4
102 27.0 104.9 307./ 7.5
108 27.8 105.4 333./ 9.2
114 29.0 105.7 345./11.9
120 30.4 106.0 345./14.6
126 31.7 105.9 5./12.8

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS was all over the place with Alex...NGOM, etc....

EDIT: regardless, I hope there will be no halt or lost time for the oil mishap this season. It may be a stretch, but it's hope.

[KWT]

GFDL is a border whack, would be a big system for the Rio Grand region and also for Brownsville...HWRF a little further north as the images show earlier, also stronger system than the GFDL, which maybe part of the reason why the system is further north...

I'd also imagine the reason the HWRF is further north is its slower, which means the upper ridge doesn't kick in quite as soon so it carries on this slow NNW/N motion.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yes it was. Even on Sunday it had landfall near Freeport.

[KWT]

GFS was all over the place with Alex...NGOM, etc....

EDIT: regardless, I hope there will be no halt or lost time for the oil mishap this season. It may be a stretch, but it's hope.

ECM had a landfall at about 19.5N at one point...and indeed there were a decent number of runs below 23N as well. As AFM said maybe it has been a little closer to the mark than the GFS...but it would have done so by a 'lucky' stallout occuring...

[ROCK]

we all get the GFS vs para vs EURO vs CMC crap....can we concentrate on whats occurring? sheesh