5:30 A.M. TWO: TD#8 in the making?
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ameriwx2003
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southerngale
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cycloneye
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Looks like a very interesting day for us to follow it and a key one for 91L to see what it does as it moves west near the Bahamas.
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wxman57
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91L
Just took a look at the first visible shot of the day. I can see a weal LLC near 23.3N/70.5W with convection over the top of it. Taking a look at the WV loop, I can see that the GFS was correct in predicting the demise of the upper level low associated with the disturbance. In its place, I can see an upper-level high building to the north of the LLC. The main upper low is now located southwest of Jamaica. The LLC is in a position that convection would be enhanced by the upper low to the southwest. But this is a very precarious position for this fledgling LLC. The upper low could become a source of high wind shear at any time.
The visible image does suggest that this system is more organized than it appears to be on IR imagery. In fact, I think we may well see that recon flight today. This thing is going to be affecting south Florida a lot sooner than Wednesday evening (which had been advertised by the NHC and other media) - probably closer to 12-18Z Wednesday. This means that if 90L is upgraded to TD 8 this afternoon, then TS warnings may be issued for south Florida.
As for its future, it may well follow along on the north side of that westward-moving upper-low as the GFS is indicating. In that case, the lower TX coast may be the target. Wind shear may occasionally be a problem, so 91L may not make it beyond minimal hurricane strength.
The visible image does suggest that this system is more organized than it appears to be on IR imagery. In fact, I think we may well see that recon flight today. This thing is going to be affecting south Florida a lot sooner than Wednesday evening (which had been advertised by the NHC and other media) - probably closer to 12-18Z Wednesday. This means that if 90L is upgraded to TD 8 this afternoon, then TS warnings may be issued for south Florida.
As for its future, it may well follow along on the north side of that westward-moving upper-low as the GFS is indicating. In that case, the lower TX coast may be the target. Wind shear may occasionally be a problem, so 91L may not make it beyond minimal hurricane strength.
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