EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 282035
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2010

ALL CONVECTION WITH CELIA HAS VANISHED AND ONLY THE SKELETAL REMAINS
OF THE SYSTEM ARE LEFT BEHIND. CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN GONE QUITE
LONG ENOUGH FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW...BUT THIS
IS PROBABLY THE PENULTIMATE ADVISORY ON CELIA. THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS LOWERED TO 30 KT...AND A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS IS
EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER COOL WATERS. THE DEPRESSION
IS DRIFTING EASTWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 15.1N 123.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 15.1N 123.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 29/1800Z 15.1N 123.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 30/0600Z 15.1N 123.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

The last advisory.

WTPZ44 KNHC 290254
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2010

CELIA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS
NOW...THE COOL WATERS HAVING REDUCED IT TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.
EVEN THOUGH CELIA IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW...SATELLITE
PICTURES AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE ASSOCIATED
CIRCULATION REMAINS FAIRLY VIGOROUS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 30 KT...BUT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BECAUSE THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OVER COOL WATERS.

CELIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
080/2...THOUGH RECENT SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE REMNANT LOW OF CELIA IS BEING STEERED BY
ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WEST OF ABOUT 125 WEST LONGITUDE. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW...THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
COURSE UNTIL DISSIPATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON CELIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 15.2N 123.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 15.3N 123.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 30/0000Z 15.4N 123.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[bob rulz]

RIP Celia. You gave us a great show.

[pepeavilenho]

Nice video

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VcGYmRqh-A[/youtube]

[Time_Zone]

what a sick video! i favorited:D

[tolakram]

I wanted to save this MIMIC-TWP loop. Look how fast Celia was spinning and the slowdown as she unwinds. Fascinating stuff.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Direct Link: http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/3548 ... t72hrs.gif

[Cookie]

what a sick video! i favorited:D

I second that

[HURAKAN]

Great video!!!

[pepeavilenho]

Thanks!!

I like this forum so much, It's a pity I don't have enough time to follow all the topics.

[Cookie]

Thanks!!

I like this forum so much, It's a pity I don't have enough time to follow all the topics.

I agree with you re the forum.

If we where able to follow all the topics we'd never ever get offline

[pepeavilenho]

Thanks!!

I like this forum so much, It's a pity I don't have enough time to follow all the topics.

I agree with you re the forum.

If we where able to follow all the topics we'd never ever get offline

Yeah, you're right
Maybe the half of the post....

Bye, I go sleep, in Spain It's 23:56 p.m.

[KWT]

Well it was certainly the most amazing hurricane of the year in the N.Hemisphere anyway, its presentation when it was an Annular cat-5 was pretty immense!

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Summary
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011316
TWSEP
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT THU JUL 01 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

JUNE WAS A VERY ACTIVE MONTH IN THE BASIN WITH THREE TROPICAL STORMS
OBSERVED...TWO OF WHICH BECAME HURRICANES THAT EVENTUALLY REACHED
MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY. THIS COMPARES TO THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE
OF ABOUT TWO TROPICAL STORMS AND ONE HURRICANE EVERY YEAR...AND A
MAJOR HURRICANE ABOUT EVERY OTHER YEAR. USING THE ACCUMULATED
CYCLONE ENERGY INDEX...ACE...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED DURATION
AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...2010 HAD THE
HIGHEST JUNE ACE VALUE ON RECORD...ECLIPSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD IN
1984...AND WAS MORE THAN THREE TIMES THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE. ONE
SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALSO FORMED.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2010EPAC.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
-------------------------------------------------
TS AGATHA 29-30 MAY 45
TD TWO-E 16-17 JUN 30
TS BLAS 17-21 JUN 65
MH CELIA 19-29 JUN 160
MH DARBY 23-28 JUN 120
-------------------------------------------------

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

Celia still there! barely!!