ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[deltadog03]

oh, since I am a flopper...lol I am going 90kt at landfall

[Sambucol]

It's like I said earlier, with the stall that the models were not indicating and the jog northward you could pretty much throw out the old model runs. This movement to the north changes the outcome and if this movement continues it could be large!!

How large? Could this put the Galveston area in Alex's sights type of change?

[jaxfladude]

My prayers just went up big for the Mex-Tex border area!

Stay safe y'all!

[tailgater]

It is a bit surreal to see my town in the NHC wind probability chart. Doesn't happen too often (thankfully).

My parents live right along the beach in Port Aransas. I don't like this one bit. These things are suppose to go North! Nothing against my Northern friends

Bet the boards are waxed up and ready.
I would think the slower and farther north he gets the better chance he does the little loop off the Texas coast near BRO., some the the models suggested earlier, then heads north as that ridge retreats.

[timNms]

This trough should head into eastern Canada or off the NE Seaboard, that is why the front is expected to wash out north of the Gulf Coast.

Thanks, Dean4Storms. I think I've got a better grasp of it now.

[Clint_TX]

To address your first question, the whole thing about "fronts" steering tropical systems is simplistic, and really a misnomer perpetuated by meteorologists who are either too ignorant or too lazy to explain what is actually happening.

And he comes out swinging!

I figured you'd like that!

Tony I was afraid you were sitting this one out

[ozonepete]

Here we go.

[Ivanhater]

The G-IV mission today should help the models out

[brunota2003]

I wish we still had QuikScat

[Evil Jeremy]

Intense ball of convection firing over the storm right now. There isn't much of anything preventing this from undergoing slight RI. I am surprised the NHC's intensity forecast is so low. I don't think there is much keeping this from becoming a weak Cat 3 within 48 hours. It really all depends on timing.

[Dean4Storms]

It's like I said earlier, with the stall that the models were not indicating and the jog northward you could pretty much throw out the old model runs. This movement to the north changes the outcome and if this movement continues it could be large!!

How large? Could this put the Galveston area in Alex's sights type of change?

I doubt that far, I'm thinking more up near CC, but need to see what it does overnight and into tomorrow.

[Texas Snowman]

From the way things are progressing tonight, I think Alex will easily be Cat 1 by sunrise. Near or perhaps exceeding Cat 2 by mid-afternoon tomorrow. And then...???

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ptarmigan]

The central pressure for Alex is quite low. The last time I saw something like this was with Wilma. Alex's circulation is quite large.

The satellite presentation kinda reminds me of Wilma. Do I expect Alex to be like Wilma. No.

[Dean4Storms]

This trough should head into eastern Canada or off the NE Seaboard, that is why the front is expected to wash out north of the Gulf Coast.

Thanks, Dean4Storms. I think I've got a better grasp of it now.

Keep in mind as the front loses steam the Atlantic Ridge builds back into the Gulf and links with the Rockies ridge which is what is expected to turn Alex back westward.

[ozonepete]

Intense ball of convection firing over the storm right now. There isn't much of anything preventing this from undergoing slight RI. I am surprised the NHC's intensity forecast is so low. I don't think there is much keeping this from becoming a weak Cat 3 within 48 hours. It really all depends on timing.

Agreed. Higher SSTs coming, good mid-level mositure, low shear, and an upper level anticyclone to exhaust it. Even the one negative which was the large circulation envelope (which would have retarded the winds from ramping up) is now tightening.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

im in the minimal hurricane camp by morning. Im off to bed gentlemen. See you in the am. *bows out*

[thetruesms]

Correct. I can't speak for the rest of the guys...but I am swamped. I hang out at storm 2 K..not because I have a lot of free time...but to keep my sanity and bounce ideas off people.

Like most pro-mets on this site that work in the TX gulf coast area...my weekend plans got canceled. I worked today...which is normally a day off...I was up till 2 am last night and up at 6...and have barely left the computer all day. I've had 8 conference calls today...

So...there are times I miss questions...or just skim replies. When I am on a call (like with the State)...I may disappear for up to an hour. If you PM me...I will get to any and all questions eventually

Wow, so much of this sounds so familiar In addition, I know for myself and for likely many other promets, the tropics are not our primary responsibility, and are added on top of what we normally do. Throw in support for Deepwater Horizon, and I'm trying to wear three hats at one time right now! We try, but sometimes things slip through here and there. If nothing else, a PM to one of us will most likely get answered when we get a chance.

And finally, and I think most importantly, s2k has posters with a wide range of experience - from multiple degrees in meteorology to no experience at all beyond a strong interest in the weather. When I answer a question, I try my hardest to do it in a way that hopefully the most people can understand, regardless of their knowledge base. Sometimes that takes a little bit to write something up that is easy to understand but still correct.

Thanks, AFM. I knew it had to be much more complicated than what I'd posted. I appreciate your time.
Let's see if I understand a little better. The front that is moving westward is being driven by an upper level trough that has/is creating a weakness in the high (along with that ULL that's over SE LA). This has allowed a more northward motion in Alex over the past few hours.
What is going to happen to the trough that is driving the front as the high builds back in? (Stupid question?)

I'm certain I will be beaten to answering this, but the trough will lift to the northeast, allowing that ridge to build in behind it.

oh, since I am a flopper...lol I am going 90kt at landfall

Well, while we're all flopping around like fish, I'm going to go ahead and slide up the coast a bit. Still in Mexico, but much closer to BRO than my previous thoughts of ~100 mi. I will certainly flop around a little more once motion becomes a little more firm

[Texas Snowman]

Intense ball of convection firing over the storm right now. There isn't much of anything preventing this from undergoing slight RI. I am surprised the NHC's intensity forecast is so low. I don't think there is much keeping this from becoming a weak Cat 3 within 48 hours. It really all depends on timing.

I am too.

While I am certainly no expert at all in tropical meterology, unless there is something in play that I don't see tonight (HIGHLY possible, BTW), I'm a little perplexed by the intensity forecast.

From where I'm sitting, I can't see why Alex will not reach at least upper Cat 2 status or even Cat 3 status.

If nothing knocks him back, I think it's possible to have a 120 mph hurricane approaching S. Texas on Wednesday.

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cape Verde]

I don't need a personal disclaimer since nobody takes my predictions seriously, and they are not based on any known science. (We'll be the judge of that - signed, the mgmt)

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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So since Alex doesn't know where he is going, Port Aransas is lovely this time of year, and he'll arrive as a Cat 3, but not before he flip flops the models.

I am counting on everyone remember my bold prediction is it is right, and quickly forgetting in entirely if it hits the Laguna Madre in Kennedy County where only the Nilgai will care.

[Texas Snowman]

Sorry for bringing this photo back up...but I saw it earlier this evening and I am just amazed by the circulation feeding this thing.