ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[thetruesms]

I wish we still had QuikScat

Well, we still have ASCAT, which I suppose is better than nothing?

[brunota2003]

I'm still sticking with my Galveston to Brownsville area that I said last night. I feel confident the models will shift to the north and come into agreement somewhere around there. It is a huge area, but with the lack of picking a place by the models, along with uncertainty of what they will do will tons of new data for the 00Z runs, will just keep it as is.

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HouTXmetro]

CDO is really expanding or/and Alex is starting to book it NW now.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

I'm still sticking with my Galveston to Brownsville area that I said last night. I feel confident the models will shift to the north and come into agreement somewhere around there. It is a huge area, but with the lack of picking a place by the models, along with uncertainty of what they will do will tons of new data for the 00Z runs, will just keep it as is.

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I feel the same way about the matagorda bay area ever since saturday morning...just a gut...not official!!

[Ikester]

CDO is really expanding or/and Alex is starting to book it NW now.

Huh? The advisory just came out 30 min ago and it is moving NORTH. The expanding CDO may be an optical illusion as far as direction goes.

[timNms]

This trough should head into eastern Canada or off the NE Seaboard, that is why the front is expected to wash out north of the Gulf Coast.

Thanks, Dean4Storms. I think I've got a better grasp of it now.

Keep in mind as the front loses steam the Atlantic Ridge builds back into the Gulf and links with the Rockies ridge which is what is expected to turn Alex back westward.

Thanks again, Dean4Storms.

[tailgater]

Can't tell direction from IR loops.
I'm a little surprised that no TS warnings are up for the NW Yucatan coast.

[ROCK]

CDO is really expanding or/and Alex is starting to book it NW now.

Its moving at 5mph per last advisory NORTH...the weakness is still around LA currently...see steering layers...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

[Sanibel]

It's starting to get that look. I can imagine what we will see tomorrow.

[Texas Snowman]

That landfall location just gives me the shudders for Brownsville, South Padre, Port Isabel, etc.

From a location standpoint, I'm not sure it could be a whole lot worse. Really would put those areas under the gun in the right front quad.

[ConvergenceZone]

thetruesms, is that actually a picture of you in your Avatar? or is that from a movie? Just curious, as I feel like I've seen that character somewhere before.

[Texas Snowman]

It's starting to get that look. I can imagine what we will see tomorrow.

24 hours from now will be REAL interesting for sure...

[Nederlander]

thetruesms, is that actually a picture of you in your Avatar? or is that from a movie? Just curious, as I feel like I've seen that character somewhere before.

TWISTER

[PortOConnorLurker]

With the shift in Alex's movement North, I would hope that the models would update to show the possible tracks shifting as well. Most people and employers down here on the coast rely on NHC forecasts for making their plans. Most of the people I have talked to today in the area are almost ignoring the fact that there is still a chance for a major impact on the central Texas Gulf Coast. With a model/forecast shift, then maybe everyone will get their act together and finish the prep-work needed around here.

I just want to thank everyone on here for all the up to date info. I have been reading this board for several years and have learned a lot.

[ConvergenceZone]

thetruesms, is that actually a picture of you in your Avatar? or is that from a movie? Just curious, as I feel like I've seen that character somewhere before.

TWISTER

ahhh okay, that's right! That's where I've seen hiim...That's Dusty from Twister
Geez, I should have known that, Twister is my favorite movie of all time.............. I honestly thought that was a picture of thetruesms though. I just thought his face rung a bell. Now I know.

Thanks!

[Clint_TX]

Still at 985mb and no west movement yet

[Evil Jeremy]

:uarrow: Can't tell direction from IR loops.
I'm a little surprised that no TS warnings are up for the NW Yucatan coast.

No need.

[lrak]

With the shift in Alex's movement North, I would hope that the models would update to show the possible tracks shifting as well. Most people and employers down here on the coast rely on NHC forecasts for making their plans. Most of the people I have talked to today in the area are almost ignoring the fact that there is still a chance for a major impact on the central Texas Gulf Coast. With a model/forecast shift, then maybe everyone will get their act together and finish the prep-work needed around here.

I just want to thank everyone on here for all the up to date info. I have been reading this board for several years and have learned a lot.

Welcome, and my boss acted like that, "uh its going south, nothing to worry about."

[thetruesms]

thetruesms, is that actually a picture of you in your Avatar? or is that from a movie? Just curious, as I feel like I've seen that character somewhere before.

TWISTER

ahhh okay, that's right! That's where I've seen hiim...That's Dusty from Twister
Geez, I should have known that, Twister is my favorite movie of all time.............. I honestly thought that was a picture of thetruesms though. I just thought his face rung a bell. Now I know.

Thanks!

I do wish that I could find that hat, however! By the time I got there, OU had done a pretty complete job of purging the old logo though.

Looks like recon is finding that Alex is starting to get moving again in a more or less northerly direction. Looks like this last center fix will come in at a hair west of due north.

[A1A]

Can someone explain to me the significance of the the red area and the blue zig zag area?