ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[cwachal]

While it's a little slow, I have a question. Someone said before, I think, that Fla and La are experiencing some storms that are due to this storm. If that is the case, why aren't we getting anything here in Houston? Latitude?

the outflow is restricted in that quadrant

[sphelps8681]

While it's a little slow, I have a question. Someone said before, I think, that Fla and La are experiencing some storms that are due to this storm. If that is the case, why aren't we getting anything here in Houston? Latitude?

We got quite a bit a rain yesterday from Alex. I am N of Beaumont in Lumberton. We are under a flood watch according to TWC this morning.

[mpic]

While it's a little slow, I have a question. Someone said before, I think, that Fla and La are experiencing some storms that are due to this storm. If that is the case, why aren't we getting anything here in Houston? Latitude?

We got quite a bit a rain yesterday from Alex. I am N of Beaumont in Lumberton. We are under a flood watch according to TWC this morning.

That's why I asked...not a drop south of Houston. I'd like to see a little so this clay soil will be better prepared to soak up what is ahead for us and decrease the severity of flooding.

[Portastorm]

While it's a little slow, I have a question. Someone said before, I think, that Fla and La are experiencing some storms that are due to this storm. If that is the case, why aren't we getting anything here in Houston? Latitude?

We got quite a bit a rain yesterday from Alex. I am N of Beaumont in Lumberton. We are under a flood watch according to TWC this morning.

Keep in mind we're talking about "indirect" effects from Alex, like increased moisture off the Gulf along with a decaying frontal boundary sagging south. These rains are not associated with Alex's rain bands or anything like that.

[Time_Zone]

more 50 knt flight level winds ... still not anywhere near the center... I think we will see a 80 mph hurricane with pressure around 978

I think you're reaching a bit.

[sphelps8681]

Yes I do realize that. Thankyou. Should have worded it better.

When is Alex suppose to take his turn left. According to the last advisory he will continue his NNW track for several more hours. When did the models predict that would happen?

[cwachal]

80 mph flight level winds and are not at the center yet

[Portastorm]

Yes I do realize that. Thankyou. Should have worded it better.

When is Alex suppose to take his turn left. According to the last advisory he will continue his NNW track for several more hours. When did the models predict that would happen?

If you look at the main models per a site like Stormpulse, it seems Alex better start that northwestward motion in the next six hours or he'll be right of all the projected tracks.

[sphelps8681]

Yes I do realize that. Thankyou. Should have worded it better.

When is Alex suppose to take his turn left. According to the last advisory he will continue his NNW track for several more hours. When did the models predict that would happen?

If you look at the main models per a site like Stormpulse, it seems Alex better start that northwestward motion in the next six hours or he'll be right of all the projected tracks.

The advisory said 6-12 hrs NNW. So basically his forward speed would have to increase to make that time frame?

People like me come to this website to get info concerning the storms. Since it is obvious that we don't get alot of details from TV.

I just wanted to say thank you to everyone and keep up the great job.

[cycloneye]

The lowest pressure found yet in this system is 982.7 mbs. And the winds are almost calm, only 4 kts at that spot.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Dry air just about gone.

MIMIC-TPW shows Alex really starting to push N/NW



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[tailgater]

Looks like a NW motion now.

[Dean4Storms]

Starting to see evidence of our ridge building in toward Alex, think he'll start turning more toward the NW around noon.

[WeatherGuesser]

The map graphic at the top of this page is now showing it as a Cat2 at landfall?

[cycloneye]

Moving a bit faster.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 92.7W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

[gatorcane]

Looks to me that the slight northward motion was because Alex was feeling the trough digging down from the Great Lakes region. Off to the NW of Alex in the Central Plains is the ridge that is pushing SE. Only a matter of time before the ridge pushes Alex more NW, then W eventually (maybe even WSW as some of the models were hinting at a few days ago). Just have to wait and see, can't see it going too much more north at this point without some westerly motion.

[KWT]

I think we are starting to see a NW motion as well now, worth noting the center is right on the NW edge of the convection, thats not a great position for an LLC to be in, unless it changes your going to struggle to get aobve 75kts...of course even that would be a big June landfall...

I'm favoring something very similar to Dolly in 2008 at the moment.

[KWT]

Looks to me that the slight northward motion was because Alex was feeling the trough digging down from the Great Lakes region. Off to the NW of Alex in the Central Plains is the ridge that is pushing SE. Only a matter of time before the ridge pushes Alex more NW, then W eventually (maybe even WSW as some of the models were hinting at a few days ago). Just have to wait and see, can't see it going too much more north at this point without some westerly motion.

Yeah I think you probably will see a bend back towards something close to due west. To be honest I can't really see much deviation from the NHC current track, its looking pretty good right now.

Dolly redux coming up...

[cycloneye]

Speaking of Dolly, here is the track she took.

[WeatherGuesser]