Will recon this afternoon find that 91L is a TD?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 12, 2003 7:00 am

I think that yes it will be a TD later today as organization continues to improve.

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Tue Aug 12, 2003 8:00 am

I said no. I don't think they will call it that fast. Perhaps tomorrow.

#3 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Aug 12, 2003 8:03 am

It needs some more convection closer to the center for TD status. Of course now that I've said this everything will fall in place and they will find a well defined TD out there. I'm actually not even sure they will fly, but with the strong ULL to the S they may fly just to check out each one.

JCT777 · #4 Postby **JCT777** » Tue Aug 12, 2003 8:34 am

I will vote no, just so that it has a chance. :wink:

#5 Postby **Stephanie** » Tue Aug 12, 2003 8:56 am

It does need to get better organized but it is showing a bit of a spin now. It doesn't look like just a mass of clouds or "a wave".

ColdFront77 · #6 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Aug 12, 2003 9:58 am

The low made it to the surface yesterday, according to the 2:05 PM Eastern Time Tropical Weather Discussion. -- which at this point was issued 20 hours, 53 minutes ago.

Colin · #7 Postby **Colin** » Tue Aug 12, 2003 10:16 am

I said "YES"

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Aug 12, 2003 11:17 am

I voted no. It looks too weak to be classified at this time. The ULL is providing some easterly shear at this time (but also the necessary moisture around it as well) but it's not consolidated enough. The convection that extends from the LLC well to the NE is in association of a SW/NE oriented surface trough ...

SF

#9 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Aug 12, 2003 11:28 am

Stormsfury wrote:I voted no. It looks too weak to be classified at this time. The ULL is providing some easterly shear at this time (but also the necessary moisture around it as well) but it's not consolidated enough. The convection that extends from the LLC well to the NE is in association of a SW/NE oriented surface trough ...

SF

My thoughts exactly SF!! I've really been studying this one this morning. It is not going to be able to "pop" until the ULL to its' SW pulls away a little or if it gets a more Northerly component to its track to take it further away from the ULL in the Caribbean. Visible Sat on close up reveals the tops of the convection nearest the LLCC being blown NW by the shear being generated by the ULL. Almost everything else is there for a TD to form so we will do what we always do-SIT AND WAIT AND WATCH!!

ColdFront77 · #10 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Aug 12, 2003 11:39 am

The way things are going I voted "yes" -- the timing is the thing with this question. I can see why the votes are 50/50 thus far. I basically could of voted "no" with all the above opinions.

mf_dolphin · #11 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Tue Aug 12, 2003 11:45 am

I voted "no" but I think it's a 50/50 proposition. With the proximity to land, they might lean toward classifying it as a TD even if it's marginal just to get the attention of people potentially in the path.

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 12, 2003 11:49 am

Yes Marshall that may happen as you said the reason but as you said too it is a 50/50 chance but soon we will know.

Will recon this afternoon find that 91L is a TD?

Do you think recon will find a TD?

Will recon this afternoon find that 91L is a TD?

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