ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[clfenwi]

To summarize: Canadian, NOGAPS, UKMET, and GFS all show a tight spread with landfall just south of the border. You can break these into

a fast (landfall by Wed night) camp, consisting of the NOGAPS and UKMET
a slow (landfall Thursday morning or later) camp, consisting of the GFS (especially the parallel version) and the Canadian.

HWRF is a bit of a right outlier.

GFDL is the left outlier; already seems hopelessly too far south with its landfall point.

[Nederlander]

Is there any models that show this breaking into two separate systems, because looking at the Gulf Water Vapor Loop, that is what it looks like is happening.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think you are just seeing convection popping on its outer band.. d-max im assuming

[Wx_Warrior]

Tue 29 - 0z Euro

[Texashawk]

Tue 29 - 0z Euro

so.... when's that 90 degree hairpin turn it's going to need to have happen going to start?

[TwisterFanatic]

Tue 29 - 0z Euro



so.... when's that 90 degree hairpin turn it's going to need to have happen going to start?

[americanre1]

just don't see Alex turning that much anytime soon. Upper level winds do not suggest that happening anytime soon at all. I say it will continue at the most a 330 degree movement but closer to 355 with some jogs to the east to keep it almost due north for the foreseeable future. Especially with that wall to its West.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ikester]

Excerpt from discussion regarding motion:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/07 BASED ON RECON AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS...HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALEX HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PROGRESS LIKE THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFS...AND
GFDL MODELS HAVE BEEN AND ARE STILL FORECASTING TO OCCUR. THE
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...ON BUILDING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALEX OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD TRACK WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONGLY ELONGATED IN A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION. THIS IS A GOOD SHORT-TERM MOTION INDICATOR
...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION VECTOR WOULD KEEP ALEX ALONG OR
JUST OUTSIDE THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SINCE THERE
IS NO OBVIOUS PHYSICAL JUSTIFICATION TO SHIFT THE TRACK SOUTHWARD
AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

[KWT]

Well looks like that NNW motion has carried on and only in the last few hours has it really began to gain any longitude again...

Models have certainly converged upon the just south of the border idea, but I think it may well end up just north actually, which may not be such a bad thing...

[Portastorm]

Seems to me if Alex doesn't start his left-hand turn by this afternoon, you can forget about most of these model runs. He has -- for the most part -- defied model logic the last few days anyhow.

[tailgater]

Is anyone else having trouble with the Interactive Global Geostationary Weather Satellite Images? Usually if they are having problems on their end they will post a report.

[Recurve]

KWT, haven't had a chance to look at model outputs, but isn't NHC discussion saying the official track is far right of the consensus -- more northerly than models are indicating?

[tolakram]

Is anyone else having trouble with the Interactive Global Geostationary Weather Satellite Images? Usually if they are having problems on their end they will post a report.

Yea, I am, haven't updated since last night.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the models have converged back to a North Mexico landfall again. Certainly looks like the area around Brownsville + or - some here or there. It still has a decent chance that it is headed to NE Mexico based on model trends overnight. Still Southern Texas will be on the dirty side of this system if that happened.

[KWT]

KWT, haven't had a chance to look at model outputs, but isn't NHC discussion saying the official track is far right of the consensus -- more northerly than models are indicating?

Possibly but then again the system is to the north of the model output so that does make it more possible that the system will end up on the northern side of what is expected by the models....Something close to the border is looking likely, around the same strength as Dolly...

[txagwxman]

I am writing Alex off again...no way it makes it north to Corpus. Going to get some rain here in Houston. Enjoy the rest of the week, the next disturbance the Euro has in about 10 days.

[clfenwi]

Only north of the border landfall model run last night, the HWRF, shifted has shifted south.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010062906-alex01l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

GFDL, whose 0Z run I described as hopelessly south, has come north a bit, but probably still represents the southern envelope of model guidance.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010062906-alex01l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[KWT]

HWRF is very weak with this system, already Alex is a good bit stronger then the HWRF run!

[Air Force Met]

Seems to me if Alex doesn't start his left-hand turn by this afternoon, you can forget about most of these model runs. He has -- for the most part -- defied model logic the last few days anyhow.

Bill Read was on KTRH 740 this morning and was comparing this to Claudette in 2003. He said the same issues were there in regards to when it was going to turn.

Hmmmm.

[sphelps8681]

Bill Read is on TWC right now.

[Portastorm]

Seems to me if Alex doesn't start his left-hand turn by this afternoon, you can forget about most of these model runs. He has -- for the most part -- defied model logic the last few days anyhow.

Bill Read was on KTRH 740 this morning and was comparing this to Claudette in 2003. He said the same issues were there in regards to when it was going to turn.

Hmmmm.

Really?! Wow ... that is something give pause. Based on comments here this morning, it seems like it's a done deal and Alex will "behave" and follow its projected track. Thanks for sharing this, AFM.