ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Probably will come in a little to the south of the track Dolly took, which is actually going to be worse because it exposes more to the northern quadrants of the storm...

Something close to 25N looking good right now for landfall...at least the system is finally moving and picking up on the steering currents which suggests a slow bend towards the WNW over the next 24-36hrs.

[Recurve]

Water vapor making it look like convection is displaced east of the center, or the column is tilted westward, not sure which. Also, isn't the convection to the north interesting, almost as if it wants to detach, I know that's not what's going on, but I don't remember seeing that very often at this stage of development.

[KWT]

I think recurve your right, recon shows the center is right on the NW side of the convection. As for the northern convection, I think thats part of the problem for the convection in the core, its never usually a great thing in the short term at least for anything signifcant strengthening.

[Dave C]

If you look at the first visable image you can see the overshooting cloud where the recon mentioned an eyewall stucture forming to the NE of the center.

[Recurve]

I think recurve your right, recon shows the center is right on the NW side of the convection. As for the northern convection, I think thats part of the problem for the convection in the core, its never usually a great thing in the short term at least for anything signifcant strengthening.

Thanks KWT, haven't had time to follow the recon and all the loops this morning. It seems good news for the coasts that it hasn't consolidated as much as it could have. I gave it a chance of being much more pulled together by now, but that slight shear seems to have had an effect.

[TampaFl]

Alex moving slightly west & south of forcasted track. Maps courtesy of [url]BoatUS.com[/url]

[cycloneye]

Interesting little spot at that overshooting cloud.

[USTropics]

If you look at the first visable image you can see the overshooting cloud where the recon mentioned an eyewall stucture forming to the NE of the center.

Here's a perfect image of this:



Now that Alex is fully encompassing the GOM, NOAA's Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) will have some great high res images. http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/

[Dean4Storms]

Interesting little spot at that overshooting cloud.

Notice in that image how the core is now almost aligned NW to SE now? Good indication that the sub-tropical ridge is impending on the storm!!

[KWT]

If you look at the first visable image you can see the overshooting cloud where the recon mentioned an eyewall stucture forming to the NE of the center.

Yeah, I still think its a little too lopsided right now but its got time to sort that issue out, esp if it can get towards the lower shear values...its current structure probably wouldn't be able to support much above 75-80kts, if it sorts itself out then I think a major hurricane is still very much on the cards...

[alanstover]

Here´s a question before things get too busy on here: We live in SW Guatemala and have been experiencing a strong flow of moist air from the SW off the Pacific that has been giving us rain, fog and windy conditions since Sun morn. I´m curious whether this is actually an inflow of Alex reaching all the way down here or simply an indirect affect.
Thanks for any info and to all who have been posting up-to-date info on the forum. It is very helpful to us here in CA where such info is hard to get locally.

Alan

[Dean4Storms]

Here´s a question before things get too busy on here: We live in SW Guatemala and have been experiencing a strong flow of moist air from the SW off the Pacific that has been giving us rain, fog and windy conditions since Sun morn. I´m curious whether this is actually an inflow of Alex reaching all the way down here or simply an indirect affect.
Thanks for any info and to all who have been posting up-to-date info on the forum. It is very helpful to us here in CA where such info is hard to get locally.

Alan

Yes, you are in the inflow of Alex!

[Dean4Storms]

Here´s a question before things get too busy on here: We live in SW Guatemala and have been experiencing a strong flow of moist air from the SW off the Pacific that has been giving us rain, fog and windy conditions since Sun morn. I´m curious whether this is actually an inflow of Alex reaching all the way down here or simply an indirect affect.
Thanks for any info and to all who have been posting up-to-date info on the forum. It is very helpful to us here in CA where such info is hard to get locally.

Alan

Yes, you are in the inflow of Alex!

You can see the lower level inflow off the Pacific into Alex here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/flash-vis.html

[alanstover]

Thanks for that, Dean4storms. I assumed that´s what was happening, but that loop makes it obvious. I´m still learning my way around the map and image sites (and I work on a slow internet connection) so it´s helpful when images or links are posted on here.

That means a lot of other people are getting or will be getting effects from this storm, also, I´m sure.
On that loop it looks like Alex has almost swallowed the remains of Darby as well.

[KWT]

Its got a very impressive broad circulations thats for sure, its going to spread rainbands very far and wide...

If it does develop that inner core within the next 12-18hrs I think RI is possible for a brief time, esp if it can get into the lower shear region...though to be honest I'm not totally happy about that large rainband, thats gotta be taking a certain amount of energy from the core surely?

[Dean4Storms]

And actually as Alex moves onshore his bands should once again spread out.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Dean4Storms]

CMC and GFS still showing a closed low forming Northern Gulf Area by Friday.

CMC has a warm core low south of Mobile forming.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 0/101.html


GFS

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 6/104.html

GFDL... takes it SW and deepens it to 1000mb

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfd ... 06/10.html

[KWT]

Well if the convection can stay out over the water its possible I spose that solution happens.

The fact its so big probably helps to make strengthening beyond a certain point unlikely becuase that band has to be stealing energy from the core, it simply has to be. that being said if the core can keep the convective burst without it weakening this time then it should be off to the races and get into the hurricane category soon.

[HURAKAN]

GoM is Alex's territory