ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

[cwachal]

what is the overlay you use for the sat imagery in google earth with that recon

[cycloneye]

982 mbs and has not crossed totally the center at this set.

[cycloneye]

Also, it looks like a more WNW turn at new spot.

[KWT]

Looks like recon missed the center a little to the west, as you say cycloneye its certainly heading around 300 right now.

[cycloneye]

Another drop of pressure,982 mbs on this pass.

[KWT]

Yep pressure went down to 981.9mbs on the last recon pass, very steady pressure drops though it could just be the natural flux of daytime pressure drops that is causing some of the drops.

Not that impressed by the wind speeds so far though.

[cycloneye]

We will see the strongest winds on the next pass as they will go thru the NE quad area that is the strongest. Lets see if they are high enough to classify Alex as a hurricane.

[KWT]

It'll be close but the rest of the quadrants aren't even close, usually if you've got a hurricane the other quadrants will be behind but not by 30kts like we have right now...still that convection and the NE side is the area to watch for sure, esp as the west side is convectivly weak.

edit---mind you last set had some 55-60kts at FL...soooo....

[cycloneye]

No vdm at second pass. For sure they will have it in the next one with the NE quad.

[HURAKAN]

KWT, there was one 70-knot flight level when the plane went through the NEQ

[tolakram]

I think they missed the center last pass.

[HURAKAN]

Here it's:

433
URNT12 KNHC 291412
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 29/13:30:20Z
B. 22 deg 31 min N
092 deg 54 min W
C. 850 mb 1277 m
D. 49 kt
E. 127 deg 89 nm
F. 195 deg 50 kt
G. 129 deg 40 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 18 C / 1521 m
J. 21 C / 1526 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0801A ALEX OB 10
MAX FL WIND 70 KT NE QUAD 11:05:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 59 KT NW QUAD 13:53:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 311 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
MULTIPLE THIN SPIRAL BANDS IN EYE WITH INNER MOST BAND DIAM 25 NM
;

[Ntxwx]

I think they missed the center last pass.

agree IMO

[KWT]

Vortex message looks like it just got relayed, highest wind of 59kts found, not that impressive really, also note a whole swath of 50-55kts way out to the NW of the circulation as well...

[cycloneye]

Decoded VDM.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 14:12Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 13:30:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°31'N 92°54'W (22.5167N 92.9W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 236 miles (380 km) to the WNW (297°) from Mérida, Yucatán, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,277m (4,190ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 89 nautical miles (102 statute miles) to the SE (127°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 195° at 50kts (From the SSW at ~ 57.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 982mb (29.00 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:53:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NW (311°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MULTIPLE THIN SPIRAL BANDS IN EYE WITH INNER MOST BAND DIAM 25 NM

[HURAKAN]

899
NOUS42 KNHC 291430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 29 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z JUNE TO 01/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-029

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
A. 30/1800,2100, 01/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1201A ALEX
C. 30/1445Z
D. 24.9N 96.2W
E. 30/1630Z TO 01/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 70
A. 01/0300,0600,0900Z
B. AFXXX 1301A ALEX
C. 30/2345Z
D. 25.3N 97.0W
E. 01/0130Z TO 01/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[KWT]

This pass from recon will be the big one to see whether we have a hurricane or not, recon heading towards the SW quadrant.

[cycloneye]

Here we go with the pass towards the NE quad.

[tolakram]

Going to guess ... 79kts NE quad.

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure 982.2 mbs.