ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Frank2]

Water vapor making it look like convection is displaced east of the center, or the column is tilted westward, not sure which. Also, isn't the convection to the north interesting, almost as if it wants to detach, I know that's not what's going on, but I don't remember seeing that very often at this stage of development.

Alex though a large system is not the most well-organized, that's for sure...

[Macrocane]

Alex continues to be very big, at least the cloud field, that's why I think we are not going to see much intensification but given its size the rains will affect a large portion of land (well it has already affected as far as Central America).

[HURAKAN]

RECON bound for second pass in the next 10 mins

[hurricaneCW]

Alex looks like a total mess, I see some nice outflow developing but it looks like a half eaten cyclone. I guess now I know why some models refused to deepen Alex much.

[lrak]

When is this thing going to turn WEST?

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24

Just an observation but if you look at this WV loop the air flow from mexico throughout Central Texas and oklahoma is from SW to NE and a low trough like feature? could this keep Alex more NW or stall him? or is it expected to wash out?

[HURAKAN]

133230 2234N 09254W 8431 01344 9821 +206 +202 087014 015 019 004 00

982 mb but still going down

[Evil Jeremy]

Alex is on the verge of becoming a Hurricane, and I believe it will be one by 11, or the intermediate at the latest. And still, timing remains everything. Finally it's moving NW, but when it bends to the west is key, and I think the models will keep fliping until the bend happens.

[KWT]

Alex looks like a total mess, I see some nice outflow developing but it looks like a half eaten cyclone. I guess now I know why some models refused to deepen Alex much.

There still seems to be quite a lot of subsidence aloft to the north and west of the system, I can only imagine the big convective band to the north is causing that region to be present.

Still does look like its slowly strengthening and you don't need a great presentation to get into the 75kts sorta range anyway. Recon going to be close to 980mbs...

[Frank2]

Upgrading disorganized systems is not a favorite task of the NHC but if the wind meets the criteria then they'd have to go foward - if and when that happens...

[Dean4Storms]

If you notice on the latest imagery you can see the mid level clouds just north of the core convection becoming oriented West to East, that has to be due to the ridge and he should now begin a more westward movement.

[HURAKAN]

Pressure dropping slowly, it should become a hurricane later today

[KWT]

Upgrading disorganized systems is not a favorite task of the NHC but if the wind meets the criteria then they'd have to go foward - if and when that happens...

I've a decent number of hurricanes that have looked really bad, in the end sometimes you do get ugly hurricanes...this one isn't half as bad as some I've seen...

ps, recon suggests a NW/WNW has began, which makes sense for the reasons Dean4storms has just listed.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looking through water vapor loops, it seems that the convection around the core has weakened a lot over the past 3 or so hours, and a new convective burst taking place more recently near the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[Frank2]

If you notice on the latest imagery you can see the mid level clouds just north of the core convection becoming oriented West to East, that has to be due to the ridge and he should now begin a more westward movement.

If I'm not mistaken this was one of the model scenarios (the ridge weakening and then rebuilding) as far back as Saturday or Sunday - interesting...

P.S. KWT, I agree...

[KWT]

Recon not finding winds that come even close to justifying hurricane upgrade right now, will probably have to look in the new convective burst if they are to find winds that come close to justifying an upgrade. Pressure slowly dropping away.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Recon not finding winds that come even close to justifying hurricane upgrade right now, will probably have to look in the new convective burst if they are to find winds that come close to justifying an upgrade. Pressure slowly dropping away.

True but they need to get back to the NEQ, where they found the strongest winds coming in. With a .80 reduction, Alex needs 80 knots to get to 64 knots.

[SunnyThoughts]

[WeatherGuesser]

Far outer bands showing up on Brownsville radar.