ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[americanre1]

So Aric do you think there could be slow down in forward motion as Alex gets his act together and starts intensifying??

[StormClouds63]

Not exactly the same scenario, but I do remember a strong ridge (in August) during 1999 and 2000. Bret was a lot smaller, but packed a strong punch. Landfall at Cat 3.

[txagwxman]

We should get 2-4" from Alex...notice the storm is moving WSW now on satellite...

Hand it to the ECMWF.

BTW, the ECMWF hinting at another weak low in the western Gulf late next week.

[WacoWx]

~650 miles away and Waco seeing a flow out of the northeast (see radar). The diameter of this thing is really something!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[South Texas Storms]

We should get 2-4" from Alex...notice the storm is moving WSW now on satellite...

Hand it to the ECMWF.

BTW, the ECMWF hinting at another weak low in the western Gulf late next week.

txagwxman, how much rain can i expect in san antonio?

[txagwxman]

Not exactly the same scenario, but I do remember a strong ridge (in August) during 1999 and 2000. Bret was a lot smaller, but packed a strong punch. Landfall at Cat 3.

Yea I chased Bret down through Corpus...

[txagwxman]

We should get 2-4" from Alex...notice the storm is moving WSW now on satellite...

Hand it to the ECMWF.

BTW, the ECMWF hinting at another weak low in the western Gulf late next week.

txagwxman, how much rain can i expect in san antonio?

A lot.

[Texas Snowman]

Got to admit that as I check in this afternoon, I am a bit surprised to find that Alex hasn't done much since last night, at least intensity wise.

Last night, I thought the storm would overachieve a bit on intensity and go Cat 2, maybe low end Cat 3. That doesn't look very likely now.

I should have remembered that we're still in late June, not late August.

[South Texas Storms]

A lot such as...? 3-5 inches?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

A lot such as...? 3-5 inches?

Quite possible. Maybe more locally

[Texas Snowman]

Not exactly the same scenario, but I do remember a strong ridge (in August) during 1999 and 2000. Bret was a lot smaller, but packed a strong punch. Landfall at Cat 3.

Yea I chased Bret down through Corpus...

As I recall, Bret bombed out the day before landfall and went Cat 4 for a while. Very fortunate that the storm was 1. compact; 2. missed Corpus and Brownsville; and 3. peaked in intensity before landfall.

I also seem to remember that it cut something like 30+ temporary passes through Padre Island from the Gulf of Mexico to the Laguna Madre and it messed up Port Mansfield pretty good. I knew a guy that lived there and he lost the roof to his house and had a lot of damage.

[HURAKAN]

I see people underestimating a tropical cyclone that has favorable atmospheric conditions and very warm sea-surface temperatures. Alex has the power to surprise.

[Big O]

Txagwxman,

What effects can I expect here in Brownsville/McAllen given the southern trend depicted on the model runs?

What does the European ensemble mean depict with respect to Alex? Is it north or south of the operational or is it in about the same location as the operational?

With respect to the European operational, do you have access to the 12 hour increment panels? What does the 36 hour panel show as far as landfall and trajectory? It is difficult to extrapolate from 24 to 48 hours whether the storm is moving WNW, West, or WSW.

Thanks in advance.

[RachelAnna]

We should get 2-4" from Alex...notice the storm is moving WSW now on satellite...

Hand it to the ECMWF.

BTW, the ECMWF hinting at another weak low in the western Gulf late next week.

Should be interesting to see what that weak low does. I think Alex has proven that we're in for an early, and interesting, hurricane season.

[hurricaneCW]

Alex has continued to pull himself together this afternoon and I'd be surprised if the next reconnaissance flight does not find a hurricane. Could be one of those storms that intensifies even as it makes landfall. Turned toward the wnw as well.

[alan1961]

Is it possible why alex is not intensifying much is
that he's churning up cooler water with the
slower motion he's been traveling at, he's been
moving faster recently thats why we've seen
a few good bursts of convection...to be honest
i can't see him gaining anymore strength before
landfall IMO.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Large swath of moisture visible offshore in the Hou/Gav radar. Looks to swing around towards CC

[Aric Dunn]

So Aric do you think there could be slow down in forward motion as Alex gets his act together and starts intensifying??

not likely the ridge continues to build in and alex gets stronger, alex will be steered more and more by the ridge.

[Brent]

Anyone just notice a sharp west turn, almost looks WSW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html