ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Is it possible why alex is not intensifying much is
that he's churning up cooler water with the
slower motion he's been traveling at, he's been
moving faster recently thats why we've seen
a few good bursts of convection...to be honest
i can't see him gaining anymore strength before
landfall IMO.

Alex still has plenty of time to gain strength. Still over 24 hours before landfall and we have seen what Storms can do in 24 hours (Katrina, Rita, Wilma). Not saying that Alex will rapidly deepen into a Hurricane comparable to the ones listed but just saying Alex still has plenty of time to make it's move whatever that may be.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone just notice a sharp west turn, almost looks WSW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

thats what i mentioned before.. as the convection wraps around there is going to be an apparent change in motion and at some point it will look as though it stalled but dont be fooled but the convection.. the surface circ is still basically moving the same..

[dhweather]

Anyone just notice a sharp west turn, almost looks WSW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I'd say that last frame might be a wobble, but in general, yes, he's taken a hard left.

[Nederlander]

Anyone just notice a sharp west turn, almost looks WSW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

thats what i mentioned before.. as the convection wraps around there is going to be an apparent change in motion and at some point it will look as though it stalled but dont be fooled but the convection.. the surface circ is still basically moving the same..

I know its hard, but try not to focus on the center of circ, but on the overall system.. for me, it eliminates my eyes playing tricks on me

[Frank2]

Winds at BRO and TAM have switched to the north in the past two hours, so Alex is progressing westward, that's for sure:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[SunnyThoughts]

Latest

[Nederlander]

He's big, thats for sure, but his overall look still doesnt impress me.. Flooding concerns are going to be the main problem IMO.. He looks very ragged.. for whatever reason, this system just cant get its act together under very favorable conditions.. he did the same thing in the caribbean, we were all just waiting for that 'moment'.. that being said, i think dry air could be his problem.. but im still not convinced he will get above TS status..

[poof121]

Looking like the beginnings of what some of the models were hinting at, a surface low developing along the gulf coast. Nothing major yet, but definitely some vorticity and convergence.

[mpic]

Got it on radar now.

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/doppler?id=5750607&mapnum=1&anim=true

[jasons2k]

I see people underestimating a tropical cyclone that has favorable atmospheric conditions and very warm sea-surface temperatures. Alex has the power to surprise.

I don't think most are underestimating it at all. It's just a sobering reality that hurricanes are very fragile beasts and it takes a near-perfect set of conditions to allow one to completely "gel"

There are now three things working against Alex from rapidly intensifying into a major hurricane:
1) Time - it's running out of time with ~24-36 hours before LF
2) Dry Air is still a problem. Even now it appears on Sat loops that dry air is continuing to be entrained into the system
3) Its rather large size and circulation will temper any rapid increase in winds. This explains why even with such low pressures Alex is still not a hurricane.

[hurricaneCW]

Alex looks much better than this morning which amazes me that it was 60 knots this morning when it looks 3x as better this afternoon. It looked more like 50 knots in the morning and now it looks like a 65-70 knot hurricane to me. The pressures were near 980mb and I think the winds had yet to catch up but they should be the time recon gets out there again. I wonder if we'll see some more very large storms this year.

[Portastorm]

We're getting some indirect results of Alex here in Austin. Very intense but short-lived thunderstorms moving east to west across the area. Kinda cool, really!

[srainhoutx]

I see people underestimating a tropical cyclone that has favorable atmospheric conditions and very warm sea-surface temperatures. Alex has the power to surprise.

I don't think most are underestimating it at all. It's just a sobering reality that hurricanes are very fragile beasts and it takes a near-perfect set of conditions to allow one to completely "gel"

There are now three things working against Alex from rapidly intensifying into a major hurricane:
1) Time - it's running out of time with ~24-36 hours before LF
2) Dry Air is still a problem. Even now it appears on Sat loops that dry air is continuing to be entrained into the system
3) Its rather large size and circulation will temper any rapid increase in winds. This explains why even with such low pressures Alex is still not a hurricane.

Excellent post! I would add that if we see an eye form, it may well be a rather large one with an expansive TS force windfield.

[Frank2]

...so are we, except that in our case it's been a lack of afternoon thunderstorms since Saturday due to the fairly strong E-SE flow across this area, so sunny and hot afternoons, despite the breeze...

Frank

[HurricaneRobert]

Alex - like Ike - is a big fish in a little pond. It will take a long time to intensify.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm still sticking to my Cat1 forecast. Alex obviously is taking a long time to organize to size and structure. That's not going to change, and it's running out of time quickly.

[hurricaneCW]

A lot of Mets and Pros mentioned that Alex would not rapidly intensify because of its size and lack of time. If we put Alex is the MDR region and gave it 3-5 days before any land, than we would have a very large Cat 4 Floyd like storm. Each storm is different. Katrina had no problem intensifying once it crossed Florida but Ike never got beyond Cat 2, Alex will suffer the same fate, but probably a high end cat 1, not cat 2.

[hurricanefloyd5]

looks to me that an eye appears to be appearing http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[fogbreath]

I don't think most are underestimating it at all. It's just a sobering reality that hurricanes are very fragile beasts and it takes a near-perfect set of conditions to allow one to completely "gel".

I'm still learning the intricacies of these storms (while I've lived in "boring" climes of NorCal the last three decades, I was born in FL so hurricanes and weather in general were in my mind a lot as a kid) so a lot of my thinking is maybe more "gut feeling" than data-based at this point.

But that's the feeling I get from Alex - something of a fragile beast that can't truly get its act together until maybe the end, perhaps a mid-Cat 1 at most. Of course, that's just my forecast, and it's not like this storm can't strengthen more, cause havoc as a big rainmaker etc.

[Brent]