ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HurricaneBill]

Alex's size concerns me. This could be a flood event for Mexico. Large hurricanes hitting this region of Mexico can sometimes be disastrous. (Gilbert 1988; Diana 1990)

[tolakram]

Low res, but looks like the core is improved.

[Steve]

All I'm going to say about Alex is that it looks like a big cinnamon roll. No, I'm not hungry either.

[lebron23]

Alex's size concerns me. This could be a flood event for Mexico. Large hurricanes hitting this region of Mexico can sometimes be disastrous. (Gilbert 1988; Diana 1990)

i can totally agree with that if you look at the HGX radar you can already see the rain bands

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[Aric Dunn]

All I'm going to say about Alex is that it looks like a big cinnamon roll. No, I'm not hungry either.

we should rename it to ... Tropical storm Cinnamon Roll

[lester]

this says it all:

[funster]

All I'm going to say about Alex is that it looks like a big cinnamon roll. No, I'm not hungry either.

we should rename it to ... Tropical storm Cinnamon Roll

[Sanibel]

I think you are using a southern hemisphere clockwise cinnamon roll.


June Gulf storms sometimes tend to have that extra-tropical, energy in the outer bands look.

[Waterdrop]

can one assume the waves will be brilliant tomorrow in the galveston area??????????

[HURAKAN]

popping

[lebron23]

popping

wow.....that HAS to be a hurricane...IMO

[KWT]

What a strange looking system, thats what happens when your too big too soon and you've got too much dry air going into the system...

Strange ole presentation now!

[Sanibel]

Yeah, that could be an eye-like feature fighting the dry bands.



Tampico: Winds 25mph - 29.68



http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/76548.html


.

[KWT]

The dry air will only get worse as the system gets closer to Mexico and starts to really drag in the dry air into its circulation...still the system probably is a hurricane now, just about the coolest hurricane I've seen in some ways!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[funster]

Interesting storm surge probability calculator tool. Shows low possibility of a surge all the way up the Texas coast even with a TS. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at1.shtml?gm

[lrak]

can one assume the waves will be brilliant tomorrow in the galveston area??????????

Maybe not brilliant on Wednesday, but maybe Thursday and Friday you'll get some clean swell.

[KWT]

One thing to note is Alex is trying to finally wrap-up the inner core, its still got a lot of dry air in there which it won't likely work out now given its heading for land but but if it can shut out the dry air from the core its not going to make much of a difference what happens further away...

[NEXRAD]

New convection is firing all around Alex's core convection. The leading edge of moist, tropical air is surging W and NW ahead of the system and new convective activity is persistently firing behind this leading edge. I suspect Alex's dry air problems may be quickly diminishing. The storm seems to have a very well-defined center and core on visible imagery.

- Jay
South Florida

[wxman57]

FYI - the NHC ftp server has some storm surge graphics for Alex up. There's a height above MSL (realy MLW) and an inundation static image and loop:

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/

Height above MSL animation:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/al7_br2.gif

Inundation animation:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/al7 ... dation.gif

Both graphics are what is called deterministic forecasts, based on the actual track not just SLOSH basin displays. They're based on a projceted average-sized Cat 2 at landfall.