Tropical Wave in western Caribbean--CODE YELLOW 10%

[rockyman]

Could this be the start of something?

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 01N-14N ALONG 47W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 39W-53W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 43W-54W.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1156.shtml?




Euro in 3 days (SE Carib):


GFS (lowering of pressures across southern Carib in 4 days):

[KWT]

Alex came from a fusion of 92L's remains and a wave that was in a similar location to this one, I think at least these sort of waves need to be watched in the Caribbean at this time of the year, esp when they get to the western portion of the basin.

[rockyman]

Shear around 10-20 knots:


Good upper level divergence:

[rockyman]

Using 2005 as an analog year, we are coming up on the time when Dennis formed in the SE Caribbean

[rockyman]

Looking at the SAL, this wave might be the last for a little while:

[HURAKAN]

Seems to be too far south, too close to SA, and not gaining latitude

[fwbbreeze]

looks imbedded in the ITCZ..gonna have to break away quickly to have a chance.

fwbbreeze

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Latest

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, that Sal looks ugly. Tropics might take a break for another month until August. That's when things should get going.

[rockyman]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N48W 7N47W AND THEN
SOUTHWARD ALONG 46W/47W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W.

[KWT]

Yea, that Sal looks ugly. Tropics might take a break for another month until August. That's when things should get going.

I think your being very hopeful there, conditions look decent for Mid July IMO but the SAL is quite strong right now.

[rockyman]

It's always amazing to me how one day things can look totally "dead" in the Atlantic Basin, then the next day, the entire Basin "lights up"...almost as if someone flipped a switch.

[KWT]

Indeed, still you only need a break in the SAL for a few days and a disturbance in that area to get something. 92L nearly pulled it off in June, I'm pretty sure if something similar occured in Mid-July the system would probably just have that bit greater chance of developing.

[BigA]

I always thought the SAL mainly affected waves that it came in behind, not waves that followed it, because it moves faster than tropical waves

[rockyman]

This wave could crash into South America:

[Time_Zone]

Yea, that Sal looks ugly. Tropics might take a break for another month until August. That's when things should get going.

Lol?! is this a joke?

[KWT]

I always thought the SAL mainly affected waves that it came in behind, not waves that followed it, because it moves faster than tropical waves

Yep I believe that is the case, thats why the front wave is usually the sacrafice to the wave behind it.

[rockyman]

Potential:

[rockyman]

Vorticity increasing: