SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[rlltex]

[quote="horselattitudesfarm"]WTF!!! 99 degrees in Houston! Since when did they start getting those kinds of temps there? When I lived there back in the '80's if it got to 90 degrees that was unusual. I remember landscaping there and if it got to 90 degrees we would take the day off. Also, when it got that hot we almost always got popup afternoon showers that cooled it back down again.[/quote]

You must have been in a different Houston than the one I've lived in!

[srainhoutx]

QPF forecast is concerning...

[Ptarmigan]

The most recent QPF forcast. Some parts of Mexico and South Texas will see 11 inches of rain, while Gulf of Mexico sees more. Looks to be wet.

[jasons2k]

Rain rain everywhere already!!

We sure do need the rain but hopefully this won't get *too* out of control.

[Tireman4]

The rain is coming. My goodness.

[Flyinman]

I sure hope so....We desperately need the rain but not all 7 inches at one time. I hope we get a nice 2 to 4 inches over a couple of days.

[vbhoutex]

We've had rain for about the last hour or so. Starting to get the very outer bands of Alex's HUGE moisture envelope. I have been lucky here at the house this last week. We have had some rain 5 of the last 7 days. Total has probably been about 1.5". I am a little concerned with the amount of rain we may get the next few days, but am hoping we get some good soaking rains for the areas that haven't had any. I know we all need it, just a little less here at the house than most areas of the metro

[Flyinman]

I am beginning to become very concerned about any rain. We have not received any in the last 2 weeks and looks like most of the deep moisture will remain to the South. I was very optimistic of the chances, 60%, 50% and so on, but we have yet to receive a drop.

[vbhoutex]

We are having more rain now and it has been raining lightly to moderately for about an hour. I guess living 25 miles closer to the coast is the difference, at least with Alex being the rainmaker. I'm in W Houston about 2 miles N of the Katy Freeway. Total yesterday was only 0.11" but I have had rain 5 of the last 8 days.

[Flyinman]

Yeah I think it does make quite a bit of difference. I have been watching the rain all day almost make it here but fizzle out. This unfortunately is more the norm for some reason. I am about 10 miles West of 45 in The Woodlands. I see several bands heading this general direction from the Gulf so maybe something will hold together to get something. I will be surprised if we meake our 3" to 5" as forcasted.

[vbhoutex]

Alex's remnants have two things going for him as far as us reaching the rain totals, which admittedly I am not as confident as I was about us getting the heavy rains. 1st thing is that when TC's come ashore they tend to spread out, especially their rain shields. And we have a front to our North so there is a squeeze or block of sorts that all the moisture being thrown N off the GOM will be pushing up against and lifting. I'll be interested to see what happens here since that front is further from the coast here than it is to our East and they seem to be getting plenty of rain to our East.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
919 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

.UPDATE...
MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH PW VALUES
RANGING FROM 2.8 TO 2.4 INCHES. K INEX VALUES ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ALL
THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TRAINING HAS BEGUN TO SET UP OVER JACKSON...
MATAGORDA AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES AND THIS AREA RECEIVED 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. HPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TODAY AND SATELLITE DERIVED PW SHOWS A PLUME OF HIGH
MOISTURE TARGETING THIS REGION. TONIGHT...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THAT SAID...FEEL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
WARRANTED FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS
HIGH. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST COVERS THE SITUATION WELL. 43

[Flyinman]

Thanks for the insight VB. Yeah I was watching a large area of rain last night move from East to West. Started near Beaumont and was from the coast North past Woodlville. The area was very heavy rain until it approached 59. We managed a few sprinkles but that was it. You can almost see the wall on radar as the rain attempts to move our direction. Hopefully today and tomorrow may be a bit different.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/01/10 1340Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1315Z JBN
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LIX...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND ERN TX/GULF COAST REGION THAT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX. PWATS ARE AVERAGING WILL ABOVE
2" IN MOST OF THESE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OF 2.5-2.75" ACROSS
SRN/SERN TX. IR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/SERN TX AND THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO THE PAST FEW
HRS AND HAS BEEN MERGING INTO A FEW BANDS THAT ARE NOT ROTATING INTO
TX/SRN LA. CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING/EXPANDING IN IR IMAGERY AND THE SOME
ORGANIZATION INTO BANDS CAN BE SEEN. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW OVERSHOOTING
TOPS WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION AND SHOWS THE INDIVIDUAL BANDS A BIT
BETTER. RAIN RATES OF AT LEAST 1-2"/HR MAY BE OCCURRING GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE COOLING/EXPANDING TREND AND OVERSHOOTING
TOPS. AS THE BANDS ROTATE INLAND THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS, PERIODS OF MOD/HVY
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS S TX/SRN LA WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN FALL AMOUNTS
OF 1-3" POSSIBLE.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1400Z-1700Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN THE
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE GETTING ORGANIZED IN BANDS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
TX/LA COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF HVY RAIN ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THESE BANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW
INTO TX/LA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
PERSISTENT BANDING/TRAINING OF CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID TX
COAST BETWEEN HOUSTON/CORPUS CHRISTI.

[HouTXmetro]

looking dicey out there. I expect flood warning to go up if this rain doesn't let up.

[vbhoutex]

Once again I am experiencing moderate to heavy rain at my location in the Spring Branch area of Houston. It has been raining for about 1.5 hours but the heaviest has been for the last 30 minutes or so. Gauge isn't showing an inch yet but it won't be long at this rate. If this continues to train, which radar suggest it will I too think we will soon have FFW. Not a lot of thunder with this but it is definitely thunderstorms as we are getting some good rattles from above. Haven't seen any lightning yet though.

[JenBayles]

Got a slight break here in Bear Creek at the moment, and grateful for it. Got 1.75" in the rain gauge in 45 minutes. Not liking the looks of the radar much either...

[srainhoutx]

Just about an inch of rain in the old rain bucket so far. Not too bad for NW Harris County. No rain on the 4th please!

[Flyinman]

Still dry here but looks like we might get some rain here in the next hour or so. My fingers are crossed. Hopefully nobody is flooding further South of IH-10.

[vbhoutex]

I can't say I like the look of the radar either, and we are having a torrential downpour right now. You'll be getting this next Jen. I haven't looked at any maps yet today, but my guess is the front may have made it just enough South to set everything off. Doesn't look like I am going out to Lowe's or the gas station any time soon.

edit @ 3pm: FFWatch issued till 7am tomorrow.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
239 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

TXZ210>214-020600-
/O.EXB.KHGX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-100702T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-HARRIS-WALLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANAHUAC...BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...
COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...
MONT BELVIEU...PASADENA...PRAIRIE VIEW...SEALY...TOMBALL...
WEIMAR...WINNIE
239 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS EXPANDED
THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...HARRIS AND WALLER.

* THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS RECEIVED 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY AND AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE POCKETS
OF HEAVIER RAIN IN AND NEAR THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN. BRAZORIA COUNTY RECEIVED 6 TO 7
INCHES OF RAIN TODAY AND FLOODING WAS REPORTED NEAR WEST
COLUMBIA AND SWEENY.

* ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD CREATE A RISE ON AREA WATERSHEDS
SUCH AS THE SAN BERNARD RIVER...THE LAVACA NAVIDAD AND THE
TRES PALACIOS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.