Large Wave Rolling Off Africa!

[NOLA2010]

SALUDOS;

QUE HA PASADO EN EL ATLANTICO??? HAY ALGUNA ONDA CON ALGUN POTENCIAL DE DESARROLLO?

WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN THE ATLANTIC?? THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL WAVE WITH ANY OF DEVELOPMENT?

[Hugo1989]

SALUDOS;

QUE HA PASADO EN EL ATLANTICO??? HAY ALGUNA ONDA CON ALGUN POTENCIAL DE DESARROLLO?

THERE ARE SOME POTENCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE ATLANTIC??

[rockyman]

[Gustywind]

That's another wave right now? Looks less huge than the previous one but has much more concentrated convection! How decent these waves are for a start this year... while we're only in JUNE Hopefully the conditions are not 100% favorable for these features to developp into TD or TS, except for Alex. We will see but, but things are heating week after week for sure, stay on your guard.

[rockyman]

If you watch this loop, you can see how the previous "large wave rolling off Africa" was sacrificed to the Saharan Air gods...and now there's a moist pocket on the coast where the new wave is rolling off now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... java5.html

[Gustywind]

Here are the two twaves mentionned in the latest TWD. The first is near the 21W and the second is exiting Africa as an area of very strong convection pretty concentrated.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 292354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 18N21W
TO 5N23W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 21W-26W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 9N23W 4N36W 6N48W 5N57W.
A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 10W-18W. ISOLATED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 32W-34W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 39W-43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

If you watch this loop, you can see how the previous "large wave rolling off Africa" was sacrificed to the Saharan Air gods...and now there's a moist pocket on the coast where the new wave is rolling off now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... java5.html

Yeah you're definitely right and winds are abatting in vicinity of this pocket of moisture... but after that thing should be more complicated as shear is strong between the 30 W to the 55W http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html while SAL could be be on a decreasing trend, time will tell.

Nice area of very strong convection

[bob rulz]

I checked to see if wunderground had values for Dakar, which this most recent wave appears to have passed directly over, and they do! (And it appears much more accurate and reliable than the values they list for other cities that tropical waves commonly pass over as they exit the coast.)

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... story.html

However, it does not appear that the pressure ever fell below 1010mb (and looking at other previous days, that looks well within the norm), and it only saw sustained winds just over 20mph, with gusts to 35. There was a wind shift from W/NW to NE though.

I'm only just beginning to understand these kinds of things so I'm not sure how significant or normal these readings are for a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa. We at least know it packs a punch.

So far it's maintaining its convection better than the most recent waves have, but I don't think it's far enough off the coast yet to pass the poof test. Its more northerly exit location (coming from Senegal instead of Guinea-Bissau or Guinea) is helping it though. A lot of the most recent waves have dug straight southwest into the ITCZ if they haven't poofed.

[Hugo1989]

in the last image on the map will see how the sahara air disappears on the cape verde area. this a perfect condition to a tropical wave will developed.

[Hugo1989]

Just one day for the new invest area in the atlantic

[bob rulz]

in the last image on the map will see how the sahara air disappears on the cape verde area. this a perfect condition to a tropical wave will developed.

The SAL has retreated from the general vicinity but I'm not sure if the wave will pass the poof test, it's lost a lot of convection since coming off of the coast...we'll see in another 12 hours or so.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[BigA]

Another big wave coming off tonight. I see no reason why it should be more successful than its predecessors.

[alienstorm]

No Development for another week or two. Conitions not conducive...

[Weatherfreak000]

Another enormous wave on the way, looks to be spared the SAL already around because of the wave before it.

[KWT]

Yeah still a few weeks away from the CV season IMO picking up but we shall see...

It looks quite impressive as a wave though it doesn't look as impressive as the wave well inland a few days ago which had the strong circulation.