ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Cyclenall]

The pressure being that low is quite amazing and its very frustrating the NE part of the storm wasn't sampled. Anything could be happening down there.

It appears my prediction of a category 1 hurricane in June just made it .

[Aric Dunn]

With what looks like Alex breaking off the two convective bursts to the north, could he actually be consolidating into a smaller storm and go through RI, and then the upper winds that are out of the South move him more poleward???

well the upper winds dont do much in the way of steering... and the convection burst that are far away from the center have been stealing in a way some of the energy from the core. if that stops then we may see some faster strengthening but not much water left ...although it is moving really slow now..

[Aric Dunn]

A little eye.... still covered but some warmer clouds are giving it away..

[bigddstranny]

Interest seems to have fallen off considerably because it's chances of a major impact on the United States are falling....

that's just me.


Looks like it's blowing up at the moment. Heavy convection firing over center, it's more active there than it's been all day.

Everyone isn't a "weather freak" and interested in hurricanes in general. While there are plenty of us here, the majority of people become concerned when a hurricane could affect them, their family or their friends, and they start checking things out. Most people stop sitting here around the clock when it's clear it won't hit them (or those they care about). That is normal and to be expected.

we find out who the real freaks are at a time like this,

This is a good question.

[South Texas Storms]

any chance this is a texas landfall?

[Aric Dunn]

any chance this is a texas landfall?

highly doubtful but It wont matter much if its across the border.. the effects are wide spread and if it moves a little farther then the stronger winds will approach brownsville..

[BigA]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Eye just coming into view in the extreme southwester edge of the Brownsville radar.

[Aric Dunn]

There just may not be enough building south of the ridge to keep it moving.. very strange it just stopped.. all the models including the nhc had it moving at pretty good clip by this point.. hmmm

[South Texas Storms]

There just may not be enough building south of the ridge to keep it moving.. very strange it just stopped.. all the models including the nhc had it moving at pretty good clip by this point.. hmmm

what effect does this have on the forecasted path if any?

[Aric Dunn]

its actually stuck in basically the same spot as the 00z position.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

There just may not be enough building south of the ridge to keep it moving.. very strange it just stopped.. all the models including the nhc had it moving at pretty good clip by this point.. hmmm

what effect does this have on the forecasted path if any?

well right now assuming it will eventually start moving along the forecast path, the only change would be landfall time...

[South Texas Storms]

couldnt it start moving north since the ridge isnt strong enough to push it west anymore?

[Texashawk]

There just may not be enough building south of the ridge to keep it moving.. very strange it just stopped.. all the models including the nhc had it moving at pretty good clip by this point.. hmmm

what effect does this have on the forecasted path if any?

Aric, I think STS is asking whether the stall will change the steering variables around Alex and cause a shift in track. I think.

[South Texas Storms]

yes thats what im asking texas hawk

[South Texas Storms]

man alex is looking better every hour. and that is one impressive blob of convection heading towards texas and louisiana.

[xcool22]

go look at ecmwf wow thanks.

[Texashawk]

go look at ecmwf wow thanks.

context?

[Aric Dunn]

There just may not be enough building south of the ridge to keep it moving.. very strange it just stopped.. all the models including the nhc had it moving at pretty good clip by this point.. hmmm

what effect does this have on the forecasted path if any?

Aric, I think STS is asking whether the stall will change the steering variables around Alex and cause a shift in track. I think.

well all indications say that it should be moving west to wnw right at a fairly decent pace.. so if the ridge is not pushing far enough south than things will change.. as for a northerly motion its too early to say because this stall maybe temporary.. but the ridge will slide east and a more wnw motion could occur which is what the HWRF seems to be sticking with.. so we will just have to keep waiting..

[USTropics]

Latest ADDS Infrared.

[South Texas Storms]

hmmm so i guess a corpus landfall isnt out of the question yet aric?