ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[xcool22]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 21%21step/

[americanre1]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think a landfall anywheres between Brownsville and Vermillion Bay is not out of the question, as long as Alex keeps on acting up. The next 12 to 24 hours should tell us more.

[South Texas Storms]

wheres vermillion bay?

[tailgater]

Looking at what I think is the center on the long range radar out of BRO, seems to moving right along in a WNW motion .

[americanre1]

wheres vermillion bay?

Center of Louisiana

[Texashawk]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500%21Wind%20850%20and%20mslp%2172%21North%20America%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%212005101800%21%21%21step/

Well, isn't that a mighty big shift north...

[xcool22]

Texashawk not much .3%

[South Texas Storms]

you think alex could make landfall in louisiana?

[BigA]

00z ECMWF is fairly close to the Tex/Mex border

[americanre1]

Don't you guys remember that almost all the models at one time showed Alex heading due West and then turning North and then NorthEast.

[Rainband]

Don't you guys remember that almost all the models at one time showed Alex heading due West and then turning North and then NorthEast.

not anymore this is good news for the US and the oil

[South Texas Storms]

i think that there is no chance of alex making landfall anywhere north of corpus.

[Rainband]

i think that there is no chance of alex making landfall anywhere north of corpus.

It's a mexico storm imho

[USTropics]

ECMWF has shifted a tad south actually, still showing a Mexico landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah it would really have to turn NW to get to texas.. so its a very low chance of getting up to even brownsville.. still possible but low

[americanre1]

I hope you guys are right. I could eat some crow stew. But IMHO I think Alex will start lifting North and then slightly NNE in the next couple days and come on shore around Sabine Pass on either Saturday or Sunday.

I have been pretty accurate in the past. I was within 60 miles of land fall for Katrina, Rita, Ike and Gustav. I hope I am wrong here, but this storm is actually starting to scare the crap out of me. I can see it making landfall as a strong Cat. 3 or even a weak Cat. 4 at Sabine Pass.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Texashawk]

I meant a shift NW for it to move to get to where it thinks Alex will go, not necessarily a shift from any previous run. I was not clear. Sorry!

[xcool22]

americanre1 i do

[americanre1]

americanre1 i do

you do what?

[TwisterFanatic]

Wow! This storm is really coming together nicely.