ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ikester]

I 100% disagree with you. Victoria to Galveston would very likely seen the center cross over or between those towns if Alex would not have stalled. NO MODEL showed it. The euro was out to lunch. The Canadian and GFS clearly saw the weakness and if Alex hadn't of stalled, Houston would be dealing with a hurricane tomorrow.

No model showed it but the Euro (and perhaps others) hinted at it.

Alex stalled because it was under competing steering influences between the ridge to the west and the poorly-modeled trough to the NE; it stalled because of the weakness, not despite of it. If Alex had crossed the Yucatan further north, the weakness might have steered it to the central Gulf Coast, but as it was, it was too far south to be caught by the weakness. Instead it just got stuck in a steering tug of war.

The reason why most models didn't pick up the stalling was because the GFS camp was too strong with the trough, allowing Alex to catch the weakness, while the Euro was slightly too weak, making the ridge to the west a more dominant steering mechanism.

GREAT POST!!!!!!!

Where was this great post before the stall? It's amazing how everybody KNEW what it was going to do after the fact.

[KWT]

GFDL now takes this to borderline major hurricane by the way...so obviously this would be a big hit if it goes top end 2 like what that suggest.

[Nederlander]

GFDL now takes this to borderline major hurricane by the way...so obviously this would be a big hit if it goes top end 2 like what that suggest.

good point KWT.. if this verifies and Alex is a top end Cat. 2, then you might as well consider it a major hurricane.. I believe Ike was 1 mph short of cat 3 status, but the damage was devastating to the bolivar peninsula and east texas communities such as Bridge City and Orange.. I hope Alex moves quickly after landfall so flooding isnt too severe.. my prayers are with those in south texas and the valley area..

[Peanut432]

Even if the the storm goes way south into Mexico.....will the mostiure get caught in the SW flow aloft and be transported into Texas?

[Nederlander]

Even if the the storm goes way south into Mexico.....will the mostiure get caught in the SW flow aloft and be transported into Texas?

Texas will see plenty of rain from Alex

[Peanut432]

Even if the the storm goes way south into Mexico.....will the mostiure get caught in the SW flow aloft and be transported into Texas?

Thanks for the response. Do you think rain will stream northward into possibly has far as the TExas panhandle or Oklahoma?

The amarillo and LBK AFD have been mentioning this but this storm is going farther south than expected. They thought heavy rain may become a problem on the 4th. These things sometimes curve around back to the Notheast and cause lots of rain a long ways across the US.

Sorry I don't know where to find this information

[Ptarmigan]

Spawn of Alex???

Whats this model I saw in the Long Range Forum where Alex spawns a low in the SW GOM? Alex 2.0? Bonnie, daughter of Alex? What does the euro model say? Or is it hogwash? This would be a fascinating occurence....What is the WRF model exactly? Thoughts people?

I have wondered that too. I also read that it would be more towards the northern GOM.

[Peanut432]

I believe the 00z GFS show this feature at about 90 hours in the NE GOM

[CajunMama]

Good thing it looks like we're going to have a break between storms. Let's remember to not get snippy with your fellow s2ker. If you want to disagree, it's fine. But if you see it going too far either please stop or take it to a pm. Pooyie! I am one worn out puppy!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The New Version of the GFS looks better, more in line with the EURO and NAM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... el_l.shtml

[americanre1]

With it stalling what is the chance of it deciding to become a coast hugger and ride up the coast of Texas until it runs out of land. What do the steering currents look like now?

[Nederlander]

With it stalling what is the chance of it deciding to become a coast hugger and ride up the coast of Texas until it runs out of land. What do the steering currents look like now?

Like a giant expanding balloon pushing alex west..

[americanre1]

Interesting back on Sunday the models were predicting something like this could happen, could it actually be happening?

[TwisterFanatic]

With it stalling what is the chance of it deciding to become a coast hugger and ride up the coast of Texas until it runs out of land.

I was thinking about this also.

[South Texas Storms]

you guys really think that alex wont make landfall in mexico?

[americanre1]

you guys really think that alex wont make landfall in mexico?

I'm not a pro met, but not only do I not think it will land in Mexico, I don't think it will make landfall until above Corpus Christi.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[South Texas Storms]

why do you think that?

[TwisterFanatic]

you guys really think that alex wont make landfall in mexico?

Im not saying that it won't but i remember the Models predicting Alex stalling out after heading west and then riding up the coast with that being said i hope that doesn't come to fruition.

[americanre1]

Look at my post 2 post before your original question, that is why.

[xcool22]

i have bad feel