ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Texashawk]

Well, we should have clarity soon - the HH is about to find a center and the 4:00 AM update is just a half hour away... surely they'll address the motion if they think it's an issue...

[bahamaswx]

Again, ridges aren't smooth. Storms stairstep all the time. It jogged a bit west earlier, it's jogging a bit north now. The long-term motion still comes out to be WNW to NW. It's not unexpected, or a particularly big deal.

[Aric Dunn]

Again, ridges aren't smooth. Storms stairstep all the time. It jogged a bit west earlier, it's jogging a bit north now. The long-term motion still comes out to be WNW to NW. It's not unexpected, or a particularly big deal.

yep

[Time_Zone]

Alex wasn't supposed to start moving due North...which he's doing right now.

its moving wnw ...

Wnw? you're the first one i've seen say that..doesn't even seem to be moving NNW let alone WNW!

[Aric Dunn]

Alex wasn't supposed to start moving due North...which he's doing right now.

its moving wnw ...

Wnw? you're the first one i've seen say that..doesn't even seem to be moving NNW let alone WNW!

its overall motion as been WNW after that brief stall/ wobble

[xcool22]

http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/4311/s ... enhani.gif



go here

[TexasF6]

In a sleepygaze---what the heck happened? I see NNW? N? Uhmmmm.........

[USTropics]

A general motion is appertained to 3 hours, and a wobble north does not lead to Alex traversing due north now. Using http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/ Infrared loop, motion still appears to be WNW.

[TexasF6]

Apparently, they need some Round Rock Donuts and coffee to watch this thing....Aric--is this a stairstep or what? The storm was not supposed to stall or turn N??

[Aric Dunn]

Apparently, they need some Round Rock Donuts and coffee to watch this thing....Aric--is this a stairstep or what? The storm was not supposed to stall or turn N??

yes nothing but a wobble/stairstep..

[somethingfunny]

It appears to be moving WNW. The north motion is just a wobble, very common for storms to do.

[xcool22]

crazy storms...

[Texashawk]

BTW, it's dropped 15 millibars in 6 hours. That is some serious RI....

[T-man]

084230 2320N 09458W 8439 01131 9594 +213 +196 117012 017 000 005 03


That's some low pressure. 959.4

[neospaceblue]

084230 2320N 09458W 8439 01131 9594 +213 +196 117012 017 000 005 03


That's some low pressure. 959.4

Holy crap...

In addition, when I opened up the IR this morning, the first storm that came to mind was Opal when it was bombing.

Does anyone think this could make a run for major status before reaching the coastline?

[TampaFl]

Alex is moving wnw - He is now on radar :

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BRO&type=N0Z&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1

[Time_Zone]

084230 2320N 09458W 8439 01131 9594 +213 +196 117012 017 000 005 03


That's some low pressure. 959.4

Holy crap...

In addition, when I opened up the IR this morning, the first storm that came to mind was Opal when it was bombing.

Does anyone think this could make a run for major status before reaching the coastline?

If it keeps moving at this pace....I don't think it's much of a reach at all. That being said....lets hope it doesn't.

[Aric Dunn]

well just did a quick satellite/radar analysis and believe that we are looking at about a 90mph... recon will likely find pressure in the mid to upper 960s and the eye wall is not likely closed at this time but is probably more defined with a larger wind field..
and the center should be about 23.3n and 95w

hehe here is the center fix from recon and here was my estimate from before..

Center Fix Coordinates: 23°19'N 95°00'W (23.3167N 95.W)

[Aric Dunn]

a near by bouy..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

actually that buoy is nearly right under the center..

[Cyclenall]

084230 2320N 09458W 8439 01131 9594 +213 +196 117012 017 000 005 03


That's some low pressure. 959.4

That is NUTS! This is still June and we are reaching sub 960 mb values! How much farther until it reaches the lowest June TC Atlantic record?