ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

[artist]

didn't a met tell us here before that the larger the wind field the lower the pressures can be without the winds neccessarily following suit? Seems we had that happen with another large storm, can't remember which though. Or something like that. Maybe I dreamed it.

[KWT]

959.0 mbs the lowest at this pass. Winds for sure will catchup.

Also 73kt FL wind max in the NW Quad. Highest winds so far in that quad. This is probably near a Cat 2 now.

Yeah I can't see this being just 70kts, it has to be higher given that pressure surely, I'd imagine probably 80kts maybe closer to the mark but we shall what they find in the NE quadrant soon enough.

Artist, yeah that was with Ike, but that was slightly different because it had multiple eyewalls which prevented a single strong eyewall from forming...this isn't the same.

[cycloneye]

Pass from SW to NE coming shortly.

[KWT]

Yep cycloneye, we will know soon enough whether we have a stronger system or not...and whether the NE quadrant is still open.

[cycloneye]

957.1 the lowest

[Thunder44]

80kt fl wind max so far. Next set should tells us how strong the winds are.

[KWT]

Upto 87kts at FL, doesn't really look that much stronger then it was last time through, maybe a few kts higher but nothing that represents the 957mbs pressure!

[brunota2003]

Posted on the recon thread, will here too...88 * 80% = 70.4...and the Smurf picked up winds up to 67 knots on the surface...those two confirm Alex is a 70 knot hurricane.

[brunota2003]

Is that a second wind maxima I see on the recon data from the NE Quad?

[Thunder44]

Is that a second wind maxima I see on the recon data from the NE Quad?

Appears to have one about 90-100 miles NE of center. But SFMR indicates that those winds aren't reaching the surface at hurricane force.

[johngaltfla]

957.1 the lowest

Thanks cycloneye for that piece of news! That is an incredible drop in pressure and thank goodness this isn't August over an open Gulf of Mexico where it had two more days at sea. What a nightmare that would be!

Impressive storm this early in the season, that's for sure.

[KWT]

Is that a second wind maxima I see on the recon data from the NE Quad?

Appears to have one about 90-100 miles NE of center. But SFMR indicates that those winds aren't reaching the surface at hurricane force.

I'm willing to get there are hurricane gusts coming down though judging from those FL winds if nothing else...

That double wind Maxima certainly is interesting, wouldn't surprise me if thats going to eventually try and develop into a second eyewall when the system gets closer to the shelf water.

[tolakram]

Look at those winds, the windfield is huge. People well north of the center are going to experience poor conditions.

[KWT]

Another Wind Maxima at 24.6-7N from the looks of things with winds getting upto the lows 80s kts...

Very poor inner core, its just a big wind field...those winds are usrely going to make it down to the surface as gusts...

[CrazyC83]

I believe 957mb makes it the second deepest June hurricane ever behind Audrey...

[gotoman38]

Anyone have the new USAF OBS? They seem to have dropped off. Maybe the 2nd flight in order?

[tolakram]

Still available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?

Older ones not in archive yet.

[gotoman38]

Got it.. they just dropped a set. AF306 homeward bound I guess? Next flight should be fueled and ready.

[cwachal]

I think with that 92 knt flight level winds.... we should see an increase to 75 knt winds

[clfenwi]

Got it.. they just dropped a set. AF306 homeward bound I guess? Next flight should be fueled and ready.

Yep, if it's on schedule, next flight is launching right now.

1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
A. 30/1800,2100, 01/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1201A ALEX
C. 30/1445Z
D. 24.9N 96.2W
E. 30/1630Z TO 01/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT