ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Looking pretty decent there, should get a proper good look of the core soon enough after the Vis.imagery gets updated in about half an hour.

[jasons2k]

On radar, Alex has moved to the right of the NHC track. In fact, movement since the 4AM position has been almost due NW:

[brunota2003]

To be fair to the NHC...the stronger the storm, the more and more it wants to go poleward (or in this case to the right), so this may be a case of Alex getting stronger and trying to bump heads with that high, sniffing out any weaknesses it can find.

[USTropics]

[KWT]

Yep Jasons I think your right it is moving more to the NW...

Recon also seems to confirm the movement is more to the NW recently, pressure down to 957.1mbs!

[HURAKAN]

5 hours ago

[Macrocane]

This thing is huge! I think that the cloud field is even larger than that of Ike, and the media is not giving much attention to it, at least the channels that I have.

[KWT]

Still no signs of any strengthening according to the winds, still only getting 85-87kts at FL in the NE quadrant.

So still at 70kts, now with a pressure of 957mbs...what a freaky hurricane this is!

[HURAKAN]

Pressure keeps dropping and the winds don't respond. That's so weird!!

[HURAKAN]

Wilma:

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

Alex also beats Wilma at this intensity. After that, Wilma went haywire!!!!

[USTropics]

I can't remember which storm this happened to in 2005 (perhaps Wilma or Rita), but the pressure dropped significantly in the Caribbean, while the winds did not respond at first.

[brunota2003]

Recon measured 88 knots at flight level...using the 80% reduction comes out to 70.4 knots on the surface, and the Smurf picked up 67 knots...both confirming Alex as a 70 knot hurricane.

[KWT]

Well we had something similar in the biggies of 2005 but not to the same extent as this. Wilma got down to 970mbs as a 70kts system...The only one that is close is Ike after Cuba where it was down to 959mbs at 75kts....but this one obviously beats both!

Alex is one heck of a first Named Storm of the 2010 season...flooding going to be a big issue for N.Mexico and S.Texas.

[Air Force Met]

Here is the 00z 500 mb from last night that I hand analyzed every 10mb. It explains the current slow movement and the recent NNW motion. There is the break that Stewart mentioned in the 4am discussion.

Deltadog and I were looking at this trof coming down a couple of nights ago and wondering what impact it would have on the track. We were at a loss since none of the models showed it having an influence...yet it was there breaking down the ridge in NE TX. We felt it had to move north some in response...but at the same time the models had to be seeing something to be in such good agreement.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[brunota2003]

How much of an impact will that trof have on Alex's movement, do you think? Since any slight wobble could easily move the landfall point a good distance.

[KWT]

Alex has a big double wind Maxima at least on the NE side, upto 84kts WAY out from the eyewall...

Theres your reason why this system is still only at 70kts, its pretty much got the same internal structure as Ike from the looks of things.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The NE Quadrant is very strong. Wow.

[KWT]

Yeah there are some decent winds well out from the center, which should mean hurricane winds will extend a decent way out I'd imagine because of that double wind Maxima.

[HURAKAN]

12z
AL, 01, 2010063012, , BEST, 0, 235N, 952W, 70, 958, HU