ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Air Force Met]

How much of an impact will that trof have on Alex's movement, do you think? Since any slight wobble could easily move the landfall point a good distance.

That is really hard to say. Looking at the BRO radar...it looks like he is moving at about 350 for the last hour. There is so much debris in the water vapor field...I can't see the short wave...but Alex' cloud pattern is elongated to the N-S...which means the short term motion should be that way.


I can't imagine it would go north too much longer. That would be an epic bust by all models...

[KWT]

AFM, yeah recon confirms a track of probably about 335 between its 2nd and 3rd pass through, so it does seem like its jogged to the north-west/NNW.

Didn't Dolly move more to the NW then was expected at one point?

[PauleinHouston]

Brownsville long range radar loop...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=BRO&loop=yes

Definitely a N/NW movement at this point

[tailgater]

Here is the 00z 500 mb from last night that I hand analyzed every 10mb. It explains the current slow movement and the recent NNW motion. There is the break that Stewart mentioned in the 4am discussion.

Deltadog and I were looking at this trof coming down a couple of nights ago and wondering what impact it would have on the track. We were at a loss since none of the models showed it having an influence...yet it was there breaking down the ridge in NE TX. We felt it had to move north some in response...but at the same time the models had to be seeing something to be in such good agreement.

Thanks for posting your chart.
I was looking at the CIMISS steering maps and noticed that the ridge over Neb is weakening but I couldn't see the little ridge over Texas if that is a separate one. from what you're saying do you think a WNW to NW movement is likely till landfall? Just trying to learn here.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Brownsville long range radar loop...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=BRO&loop=yes

Definitely a N/NW movement at this point

Um thats not good. Doesn't have that "wobble" look to it either. To me the wobble look has a kind of roll to it. This looks to be a direct movement. These storms do this sort of thing nearing land though so we will have to see. Not sure if anyone knows what im talking about lol.

[AdamFirst]

Looks like an eye is beginning to form on the first visible images.

[tolakram]

Enhanced first visible:

[tailgater]

Brownsville long range radar loop...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=BRO&loop=yes

Definitely a N/NW movement at this point

Um thats not good. Doesn't have that "wobble" look to it either. To me the wobble look has a kind of roll to it. This looks to be a direct movement. These storms do this sort of thing nearing land though so we will have to see. Not sure if anyone knows what im talking about lol.

Yeah on both points. but as they near the coast, they seem to shy away at first. especially if they are coming in at angle.

[KWT]

Sure does look like its really moving northwards in the last hour or so looking at that radar, of course the system is a long way out from radar but thats very interesting...

Not impossible it hits outside the cone if it keeps this trend up for a few hours then bends back...of course it carried it till landfall then it'd probably mean S.Texas would probably get some higher winds then they were expecting, esp because that northern band above the eyewall probably has 50-60kts sustained.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[WacoWx]

I remember with Katrina, the Mets were talking about the amount of 'kinetic energy' the storm had due to its wide ranging scope. Why havent i heard anything about the kinetic energy of Alex? It seems the sprawl of this storm would at least warrant mentioning, no?

[HURAKAN]

30/1145 UTC 23.6N 95.3W T5.5/5.5 ALEX -- Atlantic

100 knots - funny how estimates and reality work!!!

[thetruesms]

[img]http://i1000.photobucket.com/albums/af129/kerux123/500mb-30jun-00z001-1.jpg[img]

It seemed like the thread had gone all kinds of wonky, and then I come across a pretty hand analysis. Which reminds me that this would be a perfect activity with the 12Z set (assuming it gets in in time) while I sit through a conference call I observe, but don't really take a part in

Musings on things that have happened while I was asleep/coming in/covering other responsibilities:
- It looks like overnight Alex was well on the way to clearing out an eye, but it kind of seems to have given up on that for the time being
- Taking a look at BRO's radar, I've been following AFM's thoughts on it going 350 recently, but it looks like it's starting to bend back now

[xironman]

He is in no hurry to go anywhere

[tolakram]

Looks like an eye trying to clear out again.

[Bocadude85]

I think the eventual landfall will still be in Mexico but a little closer to Brownsville then was expected

[tolakram]

Longer and faster radar loop:

[PTrackerLA]

Impressive looking hurricane. I wonder what the record for lowest June pressure is? I see Audrey was 946mb.

Edit: Actually there are accounts of much lower pressure with Audrey, so I'm not really sure how low the pressure dropped.

[jlauderdal]

[img]http://i1000.photobucket.com/albums/af129/kerux123/500mb-30jun-00z001-1.jpg[img]

It seemed like the thread had gone all kinds of wonky, and then I come across a pretty hand analysis. Which reminds me that this would be a perfect activity with the 12Z set (assuming it gets in in time) while I sit through a conference call I observe, but don't really take a part in

Musings on things that have happened while I was asleep/coming in/covering other responsibilities:
- It looks like overnight Alex was well on the way to clearing out an eye, but it kind of seems to have given up on that for the time being
- Taking a look at BRO's radar, I've been following AFM's thoughts on it going 350 recently, but it looks like it's starting to bend back now

the hand analysis are the best, deltadog has produced some great ones in past years

[thetruesms]

I remember with Katrina, the Mets were talking about the amount of 'kinetic energy' the storm had due to its wide ranging scope. Why havent i heard anything about the kinetic energy of Alex? It seems the sprawl of this storm would at least warrant mentioning, no?

The latest wind analysis from HRD had the wind Integrated Kinetic Energy for Alex as 24 TJ, with a wind Destructive Potential Rating (0-6 scale) of 1.2, and a surge DPR or 2.6. The downside is, it was from yesterday near noon, so not very valid anymore.

An estimate, based on the 09Z wind swaths and assuming a 9 nm eye (from recon), is an IKE of 51.3 TJ, with a surge DPR of 3.83