ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Normandy]

This was kinda my concern all along. I knew all along that the ridge wouldn't be a classic ridge coming in type deal. AFM and I were talking about this on the phone. BTW, great job to you guys who did the hand drawn H5 map this am. Anyway, the center of the ridge is up near me in WY. (prolly pushing just east of me now) The current trof over the NE is leaving and there is a trof split that looks to be occuring. As that piece comes down (very weak, but noticable) it allows for a small window for alex to climb LAT a bit. It wouldn't suprise me to see this make landfall very very near BRO...maybe BRO itself.

Good points.
I think making landfall at the border is out of the question to be honest, it will have to gain way too much Lat. However, that does not make Brownsville's situation any more hopeful. I truly think this system comes in 20-30 miles south of Brownsville and smacks the BRO and Matamaros with the RFD. They better pray this doesn't get its act together before landfall.

[deltadog03]

Also, follow the entire CDO not just exact center if you will. That is still clearly moving NW.

[KWT]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/1145 UTC 23.6N 95.3W T5.5/5.5 ALEX

This shows clearly where we would be at if it weren't for all those Wind Maxima, presentation probably usually is suggestive of a 90-100kt hurricane...

[CrazyC83]

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MCALLEN TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...HURRICANE ALEX CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD EXTREME NE
MEXICO...LEAVING S TX IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM
CIRCULATION. LOCAL VWP/S HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE TENDING TO SURVIVE CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH TIME IN
THE BANDS N OF THE STORM CENTER. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 77-80 F
DEWPOINTS...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR...THE PROBABILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 09035.


...THOMPSON

[brunota2003]

in order for Alex to follow the forecast, it would have to turn to the west almost immediately...what happens if it doesnt turn?

[Steve]

Big storm for sure. Funny thing about Brownsville systems (particularly the weaker ones) is that we tend to get a ton of the wrap-around moisture. We got flooded out in 1998 with Tropical Storm Frances which was much weaker than what we're seeing with Alex. It has rained about 20 times in the last 2 or 3 days which is atypical except when tropical systems are down to our SW. As you can see by the below links, the next waves are moving in. Hopefully no one up the TX and LA coasts get caught under any training bands that cause trouble.

Visible link to bands setting up in SE LA and SW LA/Golden Triangle, TX areas along with offshore Gulf County, FL.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html

Composite Loop out of MSY showing the flow:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[thetruesms]

Well, that didn't work out. I tried to scan in my 12Z 500 analysis and even though that showed up okay, none of the map layering came through. And apparently I'm not allowed to change scan settings, or at least it's beyond what I can tell from playing around with it - stupid multifunction devices Sorry guys

[brunota2003]

Take a picture of it! Haha

[HouTXmetro]

Strong training bands are pushing through Fort Bend and Brazoria county just SW of Houston.

[KWT]

Current motion will probably take this system about 50-70 miles south of the border...this would probably be close enough to take the 2nd innermost band into Brownsville where wind gusts probably going to come rather close to hurricane strength...

People hopefully won't under-estimate the strength of 55-65kts!

[deltadog03]

Still looks to be moving NW Maybe a hint of NNW

[RachelAnna]

Strong training bands are pushing through Fort Bend and Brazoria county just SW of Houston.

Starting to rain a bit all the way in NW Houston/Cypress area. Nothing exciting, but definitely one of those "There is something in the air" type feelings when you go outside.

[bob rulz]

I think this one will almost certainly bring a surprise to the residents of the Rio Grande. The media I think has been downplaying this a bit too much, although it is nice not to see them hyping a system for once.

It just has that look about it - the unusually low pressure and excellent satellite presentation suggest that this could easily bomb before landfall...obviously I'm no professional but it wouldn't surprise me to see an almost instant jump to category 3 intensity, although if I were a professional I wouldn't explicitly forecast that because that would just be hyping.

Also, Ike showed that hurricanes with concentric eyewall features can have major troubles organizing, although it doesn't appear to be nearly as much of a problem as it was with Ike.

[KWT]

I'm expecting that tornado watch zone may have to be expanded a little t othe north if this system keeps on with the 300-310 motion it seems to have right now on the radar.

[Big O]

Current motion will probably take this system about 50-70 miles south of the border...this would probably be close enough to take the 2nd innermost band into Brownsville where wind gusts probably going to come rather close to hurricane strength...

People hopefully won't under-estimate the strength of 55-65kts!

What are you seeing as far as current motion? I still think it is moving WNW in the very short term. I know others, including pro mets, have said it is moving NW but my eyes and skill aren't nearly that good.

50-70 miles south of border would be in line with 0z European.

Finally, I don't think people are underestimating 55-65 kt. winds; instead, they simply believe they will not see them (i.e., that they will stay to the south in Mexico).

Have not seen one house borded up. Businesses open. If this system comes anywhere close to the Rio Grande Valley, most will be caught completely off guard.

[Big O]

GFS and Para GFS show this system heading due west into Mexico and then turn it to the WSW SW.

[KWT]

I think this one will almost certainly bring a surprise to the residents of the Rio Grande. The media I think has been downplaying this a bit too much, although it is nice not to see them hyping a system for once.

It just has that look about it - the unusually low pressure and excellent satellite presentation suggest that this could easily bomb before landfall...obviously I'm no professional but it wouldn't surprise me to see an almost instant jump to category 3 intensity, although if I were a professional I wouldn't explicitly forecast that because that would just be hyping.

Without a doubt, the worrying thing is if the eyewall does close for a period of time and the outer wind maxima weaken then I'm not sure what would stop the winds really shoting up in a hurry...eyewall appears open on the SW side, but that means we may find higher winds in the stronger NE quadrant.

Also I agree with your first point, even if it bent back westwards they will probably get TS winds and a heck of a lot of rain...but I think it may get a good bit closer yet.

Mean movement still NW.

[Wx_Warrior]

[brunota2003]

This is a very bad situation for southern Texas/Mexico...you should always prepare for a hurricane 1 to 2 categories higher than forecast to make landfall. What happens if it strengthens to an upper 2 or lower 3? Lots of people caught off guard, and it is too little, too late now.

[thetruesms]

Take a picture of it! Haha

Give me something to do it with, and you got it. I thought it'd be handy to have a swiveling camera on my phone. Turns out I mostly just fidgeted with it and broke the connections between the phone and the camera . . . twice!