ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[brunota2003]

Take a picture of it! Haha

Give me something to do it with, and you got it. I thought it'd be handy to have a swiveling camera on my phone. Turns out I mostly just fidgeted with it and broke the connections between the phone and the camera . . . twice!

I would let you take it with my Nikon D60, so it is completely detailed, but alas, I'm not there! And I hope you wouldn't break it!

[KWT]

GFS and Para GFS show this system heading due west into Mexico and then turn it to the WSW SW.

At this time I'd not bother with the models, they are pretty much worthless this close to landfall...the upper high seems to be weaker then progged thus far.

I still see NW about 310 ATM, the worst case Big O is as you say people aren't prepared and the eyewall closes and bombs Humberto style before landfall. With it having the presentation it has and the sheer size I'm less worried about it bombing but a minimal cat-2 will still do big damage to places unprepared.

[xcool22]

look at steering flow maps

[Brent]

Lookout Brownsville.

Time to throw the models out and look at radar.

[Normandy]

If this does slam Brownsville very hard I have a feeling the NHC might take flak for it, even though they totally won't deserve it.

[brunota2003]

How well is the LBAR performing, despite the fact it is supposed to be thrown out?

[Wx_Warrior]

Brownsville was told over the weekend.

[bob rulz]

Have not seen one house borded up. Businesses open. If this system comes anywhere close to the Rio Grande Valley, most will be caught completely off guard.

That is really worrying to hear. If I were in the Rio Grande right now, at the very least I would have everything in order to evacuate...not sure if I would board up my house or not but then again I don't live in a hurricane-prone region so I don't really know what I would do.

Also I agree with your first point, even if it bent back westwards they will probably get TS winds and a heck of a lot of rain...but I think it may get a good bit closer yet.

Absolutely...I mean, as I said, I'm glad the media isn't overhyping it, but the media still needs to do its job in warning people of possible unexpected events and I don't think they've done that very well. All of the news articles I'm seeing are still mostly only mentioning its effects on the oil spill cleanup efforts, and mention that it will make landfall in a sparsely populated area of the Mexican coast as a "category 1 or 2 hurricane".

[jasons2k]

I'm in Galveston today and a pretty decent squall just went through. As I look at the radar loops (with the NHC track superimposed) I am getting very concerned for Brownsville and SPI. Alex continues to track to the right...

[Normandy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Very evident how far of track it is when you overlay the forecast track. Today is going to be one of the most eventful days in Brownsville ever IMO. Very disconcerting.

[Weatherfreak000]

The more North this thing happens to go, the longer it will extent its time over water, which is worse for the people.


Edit: Definitely seems NNW. If it manages to stall as some models predict, this could get nasty. A very unpredictable storm.

[KWT]

If this does slam Brownsville very hard I have a feeling the NHC might take flak for it, even though they totally won't deserve it.

Yeah its clearly not an easy call and even if the system ends up a decent distance to the south then they could still get hit quite hard as the inner bands do have some pretty potent winds when recon went through them, probably enough bring winds close to hurricane force in gusts.

Some very big rains over S.Texas right now, probably a very messy day there with gusts into TS range I'd imagine.

ps, first signs from radar of a bend back to the WNW IMO is starting to show.

[tolakram]

Loops are working again.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

[deltadog03]

If this does slam Brownsville very hard I have a feeling the NHC might take flak for it, even though they totally won't deserve it.

IF** this does come very close to slamming into brownsville IMO they are going to have to answer some tough questions. Thats provided they don't change there track and it does go into or just south of bro. Why? Well, you look at there latest map and they don't have the border even in the white part. I know things change, and this is NOT a slam on them or anything, but they have to adjust there tracks just like the rest of us. As of NOW, this would have to move nearly DUE WEST to hit there landfall area.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[TexWx]

Could this be a coast rider?

I'm really getting worried for my cousins now...
She told me cable is out, so were going the text message route.

[bob rulz]

It does still look like it's trying to mix out some dry air entrainment in the northwest quadrant, but the core looks as strong as ever.

[bob rulz]

Would a hit from the southeast drive a stronger or weaker storm surge into the southeast Texas coastline? I'm still not entirely sure on how it all works. Sometimes I just need a reminder after being away from Atlantic hurricanes for a year LOL.

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live---south-padre-island-tx---alex

Live streaming cam of south Padre Island

[tolakram]

Shape seems to be aligned north/south. If any model got it right for the wrong reason this is what can happen. Stewart saw the weakness, I'm kind of surprised they didn't change the track. Then again we've been here before and the NHC ended up being correct ... so it's wait and see.

[tolakram]

All wound up.