ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[dabears]

And they just reported that the storm that is currently over Corpus may be producing a tornado

Two tornado reports so far this morning: Port Isbael and 2 miles west of Brownsville... going to be a long day.

[txagwxman]

Storm surge is going to catch people off guard in South Padre.

I would recommend getting off that Island if you can...

[Evil Jeremy]

I wonder... would it be funnier or scarier if the cone on the intermediate advisory showed that Alex would have to move WSW to make it's next point while it was moving NW?

[RachelAnna]

June 30, 2010 10:08 AM

Brownsville Mayor Pat M. Ahumada Jr. urges the community not to underestimate the impact of Hurricane Alex on the city and the Rio Grande Valley.

“I ask the community not to get over confident,” Ahumada said, noting that the storms could produce flooding and spur tornadoes.

“I am urging residents to remain indoors,” the mayor said.

He said that the hurricane’s course could also change, “and you don’t want to be caught with your pants down.”

For now, he does not anticipate the need to open another shelter besides Porter High School at International Boulevard. The school has room for 800 persons and only 27 have sought shelter.

http://www.brownsvilleherald.com/news/ahumada-113887-alex-underestimate.html

Whew. Good to see this.

[KWT]

Yeah besides this probably won't be a low end one but a low end two once it comes ashore and if a building is not prepared then ya can get some decent damage...

Lets not forget a bursting storm unto land will be stronger then a normal steady state hurricane heading inland...

Recon heading in there now.

[cycloneye]

Storm surge is going to catch people off guard in South Padre.

I would recommend getting off that Island if you can...

South Padre Island Web Cam

Those waves look very rough.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[TexasF6]

16ft waves off the coast reported by Austin ProMet on ABC

[mulley]

Agree about cat 1 strength.
Documented 20 hurricanes including Hugo, Andrew,
and the only one I ever got flattened on
was Chantal at High Island with 13 reporter Shern Min Chow.
Cat 1's can hurt you.

[TexWx]

"Storm surge is going to catch people off guard in South Padre.

I would recommend getting off that Island if you can..."


They can't.
The causeway is closed. My cousin is there now.

[tolakram]

Possible more of a west component in recent images, but I would not call it W/NW yet.



Apparently as a member i see the full 40 frames while some of you only see 6? Here's the saved version of above:

[txagwxman]

Even noaa going 7-9 feet in S. Padre. If the storm is a little further north could be closer to 10-11.

[brunota2003]

Storm surge is going to catch people off guard in South Padre.

I would recommend getting off that Island if you can...

The bridge is already closed, from what someone told me...they were supposed to close it this afternoon, but it got closed this morning.


*Edited to change closer to closed.

[KWT]

Still on its (or back to its) WNW heading - eye now visible:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Radar suggests about 300, thats enough to make it a very close shave for the Rio Grande region, they will almost ccertainly get hit by the 2nd convective band which was recording 70-80kts at FL, so probably gonna gusts upto hurricane strength in that region providing it doesn't strengthen anymore, which it likely will...

Didn't Katrina bursting onto landfall first time show what happens when you under-estimate these systems, I know that was a while ago but thats still a great example to use.

[dabears]

yup, heard the same thing

16ft waves off the coast reported by Austin ProMet on ABC

[txagwxman]

"Storm surge is going to catch people off guard in South Padre.

I would recommend getting off that Island if you can..."


They can't.
The causeway is closed. My cousin is there now.

If they are in a hotel go to the higher floor...the will be fine...cars might not be though.

[Normandy]

Good news for BRO now is a westward jog is occurring. One more NW move and they are in serious trouble. Interested to see what pressure recon finds, they are already finding impressive winds far from the center.

[SunnyThoughts]

Looking better than he's EVER looked IMO. That fanning in the north portion of the storm, isn't that indicative of strengthening?

[TexWx]

It's closed.

This is a picture from my cousin's backyard.
South Padre

[KWT]

Good news for BRO now is a westward jog is occurring. One more NW move and they are in serious trouble. Interested to see what pressure recon finds, they are already finding impressive winds far from the center.

Still moving just on the northern edge of WNW, should bring the 2nd most inner convective band into the region...and if that occurs I'd be expecting gusts damn close to hurricane status.