ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

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Dean4Storms
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#4201 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:54 am

Looks like more of a west turn now than what we have been seeing.
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#4202 Postby Nederlander » Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:55 am

txagwxman wrote:Even noaa going 7-9 feet in S. Padre. If the storm is a little further north could be closer to 10-11.

Why didn't s. padre get evacuated?
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#4203 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:55 am

Looks like landfall within 4, 5 or 6 hours. My web - source is telling ~ Thur, 11 AM or so...
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4204 Postby Frank2 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:55 am

Good news for BRO now is a westward jog is occurring.


Yes, it seems to be more than just a wobble, and if true that would be sooner than what was mentioned in the latest TCD...

It's good news for BRO, but bad for those to the south - let's hope Alex doesn't get any stronger...

Frank
Last edited by Frank2 on Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4205 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:56 am

Image

Latest
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4206 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:57 am

Frank2 wrote:
Good news for BRO now is a westward jog is occurring.


Yes, it seems to be more than just a wobble, and if true that would be sooner than what was mentioned in the latest TCD...

Good for BRO - but bad for those to the south...

Frank

The thing is though, Alex is already at about the same lat as was forecast for 8 pm tonight.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4207 Postby tolakram » Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:57 am

Ok, here's a good save of the radar.

Image
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4208 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:58 am

Frank2 wrote:
Good news for BRO now is a westward jog is occurring.


Yes, it seems to be more than just a wobble, and if true that would be sooner than what was mentioned in the latest TCD...

It's good news for BRO, but bad for those to the south - let's hope Alex doesn't get any stronger...

Frank


Far from due west though, its stil lgaining a decent amount of latitude. The Extrap motion over the last hour would not take it to Bro *but* a 290-300 would still be close enough to the zone where hurricane force winds are possible at least in gusts, esp if it does strengthen towards landfall like it looks like it is.
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#4209 Postby Frank2 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:01 pm

Not sure if the clear area to the SW is dry air or attenuation due to it's distance from the radar site - perhaps one of the mets can comment because if true then at least for the moment it would be a limiting factor for rapid strengthening...
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4210 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:02 pm

Here are bits from the Brownsville Hurricane Local Statement (issued at 1131 CDT or 1231 EDT)

THE QUEEN ISABELLA BRIDGE BETWEEN SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND PORT
ISABEL IS NOW CLOSED TO TRAFFIC AS OF 10 AM THIS MORNING.

A MANDATORY REMOVAL OF ALL RECREATIONAL AND HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES FROM ALL CAMERON COUNTY PARKS IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE UNDERWAY FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND AND PORT ISABEL. THERE IS ALSO A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR
RESIDENTS IN WILLACY COUNTY. SHELTERS ARE CURRENTLY OPEN IN THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...PORTER HIGH SCHOOL AND OZANAM CENTER IN
BROWNSVILLE...LOAVES AND FISHES IN HARLINGEN...BARRERA ELEMENTARY
IN SANTA ROSA...AND RAYMONDVILLE HIGH SCHOOL. HARLINGEN SOUTH HIGH
SCHOOL WILL OPEN AS A SHELTER AT 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE
ARE 11 SHELTERS OPEN IN HIDALGO COUNTY...MOSTLY AT COUNTY SCHOOLS.
RESIDENTS OF HIDALGO COUNTY WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES...OR IN
POORLY CONSTRUCTED WOOD FRAME HOMES...OR IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS...ARE ADVISED TO EVACUATE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
Last edited by brunota2003 on Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4211 Postby tolakram » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:02 pm

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#4212 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:03 pm

This is still moving around 310-320....Look at the low level clouds, since there is some dry air around you can see them better, and the system as a whole is still moving around that. Its going to have to move DUE WEST to even come close to NHC landfall point.
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#4213 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:04 pm

96 knots FL, supports 77 knots at the surface
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4214 Postby dabears » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:04 pm

they will still have to adjust the projected path. Still going to be a lot closer to Brownsville, especially if it decides to head north again, which will most likely continue to happen
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Re:

#4215 Postby drezee » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:05 pm

HURAKAN wrote:96 knots FL, supports 77 knots at the surface


That is not the inner eyewall either...would expect higher winds on the next set...
Last edited by drezee on Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4216 Postby tolakram » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:06 pm

The top of the NHC cone is just above 25N

Image

Image
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#4217 Postby KatDaddy » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:06 pm

The eye is starting to become defined on satellite.
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Re:

#4218 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:08 pm

KatDaddy wrote:The eye is starting to become defined on satellite.

Yes it is, and its the worst kind of eye regarding a strengthening hurricane- the pinhole eye.
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#4219 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:08 pm

Alex still has a double wind Maxima. Good news in some ways for it not to strengthen too explosivly before landfall, but it does mean some of those hurricane winds are extending quite some way out, even down to the surface now we are getting 60-66kts a decent way out from the center.
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#4220 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:09 pm

this system is very strange... the track is fine.. but the pressure wind ratio basically throws out the norm.... lol
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