ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION
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M a r k
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That being said the fact the stronger winds are now further out isn't really good news for those near the border of Texas.
Its surely gotta be a type of EWRC, maybr not a classic version but it seems like that is what would cause weakening at this stage and the recon profile would suggest thats true.
Its surely gotta be a type of EWRC, maybr not a classic version but it seems like that is what would cause weakening at this stage and the recon profile would suggest thats true.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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CrazyC83
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Re:
txagwxman wrote:NWS 3-5 foot storm surge Padre...found graphic noaa experimental that shows 7-9 feet. We will see what is right.
http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php?Ty=e10&Th=10&Z=y1
7-9 feet seems more reasonable, perhaps 10-13 feet if it comes in from more east than south.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION
Still looks to moving around 300-320....That radar beam is still prolly 18-20k over the cane right now.
That probably explains the false "dry slot" on the radar display...
Oh, well - it was worth a try...
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cycloneye
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Re:
txagwxman wrote:NWS 3-5 foot storm surge Padre...found graphic noaa experimental that shows 7-9 feet. We will see what is right.
http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php?Ty=e10&Th=10&Z=y1
Waves are very rough there.
South Padre Cam
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Aquawind
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION
That is a nice complete loop.. So often it's broken up there..
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TeamPlayersBlue
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Re:
bob rulz wrote:The double wind maxima is slowing intensification, but I wouldn't say it's really a good thing for anybody. It probably will increase the storm surge over a larger area and bring hurricane-force winds out much farther than would otherwise be expected.
Yes, just like Ike was.
Although this storm is not any where in the same category as ike......
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brunota2003
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION
It has moved about 16 nm at 304.0 degrees between 16:38 and 17:26...best I can pick out with my radar:
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Re:
bob rulz wrote:The double wind maxima is slowing intensification, but I wouldn't say it's really a good thing for anybody. It probably will increase the storm surge over a larger area and bring hurricane-force winds out much farther than would otherwise be expected.
Yep very true, this is esp the case for the Rio Grande region because a stronger outer eyewall that doesn't have time to contract quickly enough is going to cause some big issues, esp because hurricane winds are getting to the surface down there.
Things are going to get very interesting down in the Rio Grande over the next few hours...
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bob rulz
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Oh if only we were getting a discussion at 1pm...it would be very interesting and informative at this point, that's for sure.
Last edited by bob rulz on Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Texas Snowman
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Re:
wx247 wrote:Doppler radar indicates nearly 10" of rain has already fallen in Brownsville near the intersection of State Route 48 and US 77.
Water - rain and storm surge - is going to be the story of Alex I'm afraid.
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Re: Re:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Yes, just like Ike was.
Although this storm is not any where in the same category as ike......
Going to get a much higher surge then the usual category-1, I'd imagine we'd be looking a surge around category-2/3...
Won't be long before we see higher winds in the cells in the Rio Grande region..
Hurakan, can get a better view of the eye working its way into the radars range now, should get a better grip on its real direction from now on.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION
Current close range loop.
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M a r k
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96kts confirmed from vortex...the NHC may well up it to 80kts given they sampled the E.Quadrant rather then the NE quadrant and that may just be enough to tempt the NHC into upping the winds.
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Big band going through Brownsville right now, probably getting TS force gusts in there I'd thought if not TS sustained.
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Texas Snowman
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Re: Re:
KWT wrote:Going to get a much higher surge then the usual category-1, I'd imagine we'd be looking a surge around category-2/3.
Yeah, I think people at South Padre Island, Brownsville Ship Channel, Port Isabel, etc. are going to be really surprised at the surge of Alex.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see some significant surge damage at SPI, maybe even a complete overwash of the city. Elevation there is only seven feet and storm surge will likely be in that neighborhood, maybe even a little higher.
Disclaimer: Above is unofficial, my opinion, and should not be used to make any decisions.
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