ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

Scorpion · #4421 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:27 pm

Only 10 more mb to go to break the June record

Macrocane · #4422 Postby **Macrocane** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:29 pm

The best cat 1 I've ever seen, I can't believe that the recon didn't find stronger winds.

alan1961 · #4423 Postby **alan1961** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:29 pm

HURAKAN wrote:211430 2421N 09656W 8434 01108 9560 +226 +206 286007 013 028 003 00

956 mb, deepening fast apparently

Hurakan..do you have weatherTap radar?..alex looks awsome on there :wink:

Normandy · #4424 Postby **Normandy** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:30 pm

Gotta hand it to the NHC. Incredible incredible job, turns out the earlier scare was just that, a scare. They are the best at what they do, no doubt. Now lets pray for those being affected by this gigantic hurricane. If this is the first system, this is going to be a long season.

KWT · #4425 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:30 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It would be amazing if Alex can get below 950mb and not even get to Cat 2...

Surely recon will find winds to justify an upgrade in the N.quadrant at some point soon, or at least close enough to for the NHC to think they may as well upgrade.

Going to be a close run thing though!

#4426 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:30 pm

Dropsonde: 955mb, depending on wind calculation could be 954mb.

Scorpion · #4427 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:30 pm

Down to 955... keep going!! :ggreen:

HurricaneStriker · #4428 Postby **HurricaneStriker** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:31 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:I saw on another site where lightning has been noted inside the eyewall with Alex. Isn't that usually a sign of either rapid intensification..or rapid dissipation?

As far as I'm concerned, if there is lightning in the eyewall, it would supposedly mean the cloud tops in the eyewall are really high.

#4429 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:31 pm

Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
955mb (Surface) 275° (from the W) 9 knots (10 mph)
909mb 320° (from the NW) 4 knots (5 mph)
844mb 240° (from the WSW) 29 knots (33 mph)

Seems like the pressure is 954 mb

KWT · #4430 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:32 pm

Macrocane wrote:The best cat 1 I've ever seen, I can't believe that the recon didn't find stronger winds.

Presentation is easily that of a 95-100kt hurricane right now, I'm pretty sure it would have been that strength were it not for the inner problems it has with its structure.

954mbs...ouch...dropping like a rock, bombing into landfall always tend to produce horrible results for those in the path...

HurricaneStriker · #4431 Postby **HurricaneStriker** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:33 pm

Looks like Alex is on a roll! The pressure in Alex has been decreasing very little by little and now a drop like this! Wow! :cheesy:

Scorpion · #4432 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Should definitely be Cat 2 winds in there somewhere.. perhaps the NHC will upgrade based on pressure alone? Not sure I've ever heard of a low 950's Cat 1 that wasn't rapidly weakening

Bocadude85 · #4433 Postby **Bocadude85** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Alex does certainly look like he is deeping right before landfall

HurricaneStriker · #4434 Postby **HurricaneStriker** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:35 pm

They could use the Dvorak scale to determine strength.

#4435 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:36 pm

Ya the jog SW will buy it a bit longer over water. I thought it would go in around 25N, but dosn't appear that way now...Either way, I wouldn't want to be in the way of this guy.

#4436 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:36 pm

KWT wrote:
Macrocane wrote:The best cat 1 I've ever seen, I can't believe that the recon didn't find stronger winds.

Presentation is easily that of a 95-100kt hurricane right now, I'm pretty sure it would have been that strength were it not for the inner problems it has with its structure.

954mbs...ouch...dropping like a rock, bombing into landfall always tend to produce horrible results for those in the path...

At least the landfall area is sparsely populated if the strongest winds avoid Brownsville/Matamoros.

KWT · #4437 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:38 pm

Scorpion wrote:Should definitely be Cat 2 winds in there somewhere.. perhaps the NHC will upgrade based on pressure alone? Not sure I've ever heard of a low 950's Cat 1 that wasn't rapidly weakening

I think if we get within a couple of kts of whats needed,the NHC will just upgrade even if we ar a little short, the pressure dropping that rapidly really is a dead give away some brief RI is occuring.

HurricaneStriker · #4438 Postby **HurricaneStriker** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:39 pm

Anyone seeing an 'Anti-Ethel (1960)' situation in the next few hours? Pressure is dropping like crazy! Only 9 mbar to the record.

bahamaswx · #4439 Postby **bahamaswx** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:41 pm

Soon we'll have a cat-1 with pressure in the 940's.

#4440 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:41 pm

This has definitely been an interesting storm to follow. Wishing everyone who is effected by Alex the best of luck. Be safe.

Lynn

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