ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[hurricaneCW]

Does recon have enough time to scan the NE quadrant and go through the eye again. In not than is there the possibility that Alex gets upgraded to a cat 2 post analysis.

[CrazyC83]

Anyone seeing an 'Anti-Ethel (1960)' situation in the next few hours? Pressure is dropping like crazy! Only 9 mbar to the record.

Perhaps that will happen? 946mb is the lowest June pressure on record, from Audrey (which I believe was a Cat 2 at the time and may have been a bit higher than that).

[SouthFloridawx]

Definitely looks like some Dry Air is keeping it from really intensifying...

[HurricaneStriker]

Soon we'll have a cat-1 with pressure in the 940's.

Unless the pressure stops dropping.

[CrazyC83]

Next advisory is at 6 pm CDT. Probably landfall will be between 7 and 10 pm.

[SouthFloridawx]

You can really see it wrapping into the Eye Wall...

[KWT]

Ya the jog SW will buy it a bit longer over water. I thought it would go in around 25N, but dosn't appear that way now...Either way, I wouldn't want to be in the way of this guy.

Indeed, I'm not sure I'd fancy being in the W.Eyewall unless I was well prepared for it, I think given this system is bombing into landfall we will see the winds pretty much nearly mixing down the surface in the gusts at least as it comes ashore.

I think the record is just out reach to be honest, BUT the eyewall is nearly the strongest its ever been so I suppose 2hrs would be more then enough to do it...will be a very interesting couple of hours!

[HURAKAN]

I have no thoughts that if Alex had been over open waters, we would be talking about a major hurricane based on the technology available.

[Tireman4]

Ya the jog SW will buy it a bit longer over water. I thought it would go in around 25N, but dosn't appear that way now...Either way, I wouldn't want to be in the way of this guy.

Indeed, I'm not sure I'd fancy being in the W.Eyewall unless I was well prepared for it, I think given this system is bombing into landfall we will see the winds pretty much nearly mixing down the surface in the gusts at least as it comes ashore.

I think the record is just out reach to be honest, BUT the eyewall is nearly the strongest its ever been so I suppose 2hrs would be more then enough to do it...will be a very interesting couple of hours!

Well this be a harbinger of things to come. Back on subject...gosh Alex is impressive.

[xironman]

Definitely looks like some Dry Air is keeping it from really intensifying...

Looks looks like there may be some mesos developing along that eyewall

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CrazyC83]

I have no thoughts that if Alex had been over open waters, we would be talking about a major hurricane based on the technology available.

That's correct as Dvorak suggests winds around 100 kt. However, Recon trumps Dvorak and there is nothing yet to support higher than 80 kt.

[ozonepete]

I have no thoughts that if Alex had been over open waters, we would be talking about a major hurricane based on the technology available.

Easily.

[KWT]

Next advisory is at 6 pm CDT. Probably landfall will be between 7 and 10 pm.

Probably less then 2hrs now till landfall, the eye doesn't look *quite* as good as 30 mins ago on radar, but for a June hurricane it looks just about as good as you can get...

No doubt this is an exceptional hurricane, as exceptional or June as probably Rita from 05 is for a September storm, to give a good scale of what we are seeing...

[HurricaneStriker]

The next 12 hours should prove interesting to all Storm2k forumers.

[hurricaneCW]

Best Category 1 storm I've ever seen. 2005 here we come.

[KWT]

That's correct as Dvorak suggests winds around 100 kt. However, Recon trumps Dvorak and there is nothing yet to support higher than 80 kt.

Indeed, in many ways for the people in the way of Alex, they've been lucky the system decided to spread itself out over a double Maxima earlier today, its certainly sorted itself out big time in the last couple of hours.

[ozonepete]

Next advisory is at 6 pm CDT. Probably landfall will be between 7 and 10 pm.

Probably less then 2hrs now till landfall, the eye doesn't look *quite* as good as 30 mins ago on radar, but for a June hurricane it looks just about as good as you can get...

No doubt this is an exceptional hurricane, as exceptional or June as probably Rita from 05 is for a September storm, to give a good scale of what we are seeing...

Yes, looks like eye is weakening on the south side - may even be opening.

[CrazyC83]

Best Category 1 storm I've ever seen. 2005 here we come.

We already had 2 storms at this point in 2005, but no hurricanes.

[ConvergenceZone]

Best Category 1 storm I've ever seen. 2005 here we come.

Sorry, but not even close to 2005. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, 2005 was already
further along than we are now. You need to keep in mind that 2005 was a rarity.

And after Alex, there's no indication at all that there's going to be another storm
anytime soon.