Global model runs discussion

[BigA]

ECMWF, CMC, NOGAPS, (and to an extent NAM and WRF) all give thumbs up to Western Caribbean development in the 3-6 day period.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Better pay attention to the EURO, especially the Tropics..

[Macrocane]

Wow! when I saw the CMC earlier today I thought it was going crazy as it sometimes do, but now with the other models showing development in the northwestern Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico I have changed my mind, things could turn interesting (and worrying) on the next days in teh Atlantic.

[blp]

In the long range, last 4 runs of the GFS has been consistent on showing a system approaching the Lesser Antilles. We need to see if the EURO comes on board in the next couple of days, because it only goes out 240 hrs now and does not show anything yet.

[BigA]

GFS shows a low developing in 1-3 days, seemingly from the ITCZ. It then gets out of the ITCZ and passes through the Lesser Antilles around 150 hours as depression.

[KWT]

Is that from the wave around 45W by any chance BigA?

[BigA]

Is that from the wave around 45W by any chance BigA?

I think it may well be (unfortunately I am not sure). However. said low forms around the 36 hour timeframe, and it looks like it forms around 40 west, maybe a bit to the west, which is east of the wave at 45 west. It's sort of confusing becuause there are two weak lows that the GFS tracks.

[lonelymike]

If this had model support besides the Good for poop I might be convinced. Otherwise this is the annual June July Cape Verde phantoms this model is notorious for producing.

[CourierPR]

If this had model support besides the Good for poop I might be convinced. Otherwise this is the annual June July Cape Verde phantoms this model is notorious for producing.

In a season predicted to be very active, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss this model.

[BigA]

FWIW, the WRF also shows a little low spinning up in the same general place within 72 hours

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... f_slp.html

[BigA]

For two runs the GFS has shown a low developing off the southeast coast in the 4-6 day range. We'll have to see if it persists and if other models join.

[somethingfunny]

4-6 days isn't exactly lala land.

[KWT]

Needs watching, its a reasonable solution for the time of year so its not out of the question really IMO but we shall have to see.

[Bocadude85]

Yup is possible that a low will develop of the SE coast... could see Bonnie if it were to verify

[lonelymike]

Euro's been developing a low in the Central Carib in about 8-10 days. Doesn't seem to do much with it but who knows

[KWT]

Probably just an active wave passing through the Caribbean, though at this time of year an active wave could well develop in W/C Caribbean.

[BigA]

Some of the less reliable models (CMC,NOGAPS) want to do somethign with an area that right now is about 6 north, 31 west. It would have to get out of the ITCZ before anything happens/

[somethingfunny]

I imagine a low will form like the GFS says, although whether or not it becomes tropical and develops is an entirely different matter - not really for the GFS to decide that part. It has an unusual track and origin to put it mildly.

[Frank2]

GFS has a low forming east of Florida and moving up the east coast - but it seems to be spurious (bogus) in nature (lol):

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

[Frank2]

Sure enough - it has disappeared on the 12Z run:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

now that Alex is out of the way perhaps the 2010 hurricane season will enter the July "quiet period"...

Frank