ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[CrazyC83]

106 kt FL winds = 85 kt at the surface.

[HurricaneStriker]

Wait, I have a question. Does the NHC have the ability to upgrade storms before the next advisory

[KWT]

Yep that just makes it offical now doesn't it really, good call from the NHC clearly...

[Cryomaniac]

Wow what a way to finish off June. Although I don't agree with the Cat 2 designation due to recons failure to find winds strong enough, it's probably not far off anyway and the pressure and presentation looks like a low end Cat 3. I'm kind of sad to watch Alex go because that means we'll probably have to wait 10-14 days for another system and I doubt it will be as strong as Alex.

We may be in for one heck of a ride the rest of this season!

Next thing you know, Houston gets 5 inches of snow...LOL.. Back to regularly scheduled programming....

If Houston gets 5 inches of snow in July (even overall lol) I'll eat a sock.

And I swallow

[StormTracker]

Recon found 103 knot flight level winds in northern eyewall; seems that category two is justified.

So you & Alex have something in common now!

[CrazyC83]

To get a Cat 3 on FL winds at this level requires 123 kt. I'd also want to see an SFMR near 100 for that.

[tolakram]

NHC can do whatever they want.

[HurricaneRobert]

It would probably not make a big difference. The coast in this area is notorious for RI, but a few miles out in the water storms act like normal.

[BigA]

Recon found 103 knot flight level winds in northern eyewall; seems that category two is justified.

So you & Alex have something in common now!

I'm confused; what do we have in common? Aside from name...my name is Alex.

[RL3AO]

12 more hours over water and I think we make a run at cat 4.

[CrazyC83]

At the current movement rate, landfall is about 2 1/2 hours away.

[tolakram]

Those large images, much larger than what I posted, are available here: http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeseast-lzw/ ... llres/vis/

I recommend getting a free program called irfanview and setting it to handle TIF files.

[hurricaneCW]

Also it should be noted that you don't see a lot of storms intensify all the way up to landfall. Most of them either are steady or weaken their intensity. Humberto and Charley are obviously exceptions to the rule.

[SunnyThoughts]

Hurricane Hunters have certainly earned their keep today! Great job, my hat is off to them!

[tolakram]

Looks at the latest loop. Hot towers, and still intensifying.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[HurricaneStriker]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think Hurricane Alex will make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane, a minimum pressure of 952 mbar, wind speeds of 100 mph, at approximately 8:36PM.

[CrazyC83]

Also it should be noted that you don't see a lot of storms intensify all the way up to landfall. Most of them either are steady or weaken their intensity. Humberto and Charley are obviously exceptions to the rule.

There is a chance it may weaken a bit on final approach if the dry air comes in. It doesn't always happen in that area - Celia (1970) and Caroline (1975) rapidly intensified right up to landfall.

[TexasF6]

Unconfirmed Tornado on Kings Highway Cameron County....please call in severe weather to the local NWS offices!!!! flooding, tornadoes, funnel clouds......be safe

[HurricaneStriker]

If this is continuing to intensify up to landfall, we have a shot at a Major, but unlikely.

[KWT]

12 more hours over water and I think we make a run at cat 4.

Without doubt this system is developing very rapidly, the whole presentation just screams category-3, its the 3rd amazingly 'pretty' hurricane in the month.