ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Landfall

[jasons2k]

Just amazing. In my book, this is a Cat 3. And Brownsville got l-u-c-k-y.

[HURAKAN]

The last cat 2+ hurricane in the Atlantic in June was Alma in 1966. My mom was born in 1967!! To put it in perspective how long ago that was!!

[brunota2003]

The eye is starting to become less defined on radar. It is no longer circular...starting to elongate N to S

[CrazyC83]

Could they bump it a bit more? The 85 kt SFMR in the SE quad is the most notable observation IMO - adjusted for the movement would be 101 kt in the NW quad. I don't have enough confidence to call it a Cat 3 though. 90 kt seems right given the data available, although a case could be made for 95 kt as well.

[loon]

Alex sure seems to be moving more and more south via radar.. where does he think he is going! hehe

[bob rulz]

Good call on the Caroline comparison Crazy. It's almost a perfect analogue at Mexico landfall - rapid intensification just before landfall, which was pretty much at the exact same spot, at category 3 intensity (which Alex was obviously very close to). Caroline caused no deaths in Mexico despite destroying a number of small seaside fishing villages.

[CrazyC83]

Brownsville is going to feel like a grotto tonight, they sure got lucky big time. They need to send a Thank You card to that huge ridge to the north.

[brunota2003]

Alex sure seems to be moving more and more south via radar.. where does he think he is going! hehe

I agree...the last few frames look like a heading of 238 roughly.

[CrazyC83]

Good call on the Caroline comparison Crazy. It's almost a perfect analogue at Mexico landfall - rapid intensification just before landfall, which was pretty much at the exact same spot, at category 3 intensity (which Alex was obviously very close to). Caroline caused no deaths in Mexico despite destroying a number of small seaside fishing villages.

Like Alex, it is uncertain if Caroline was a real Cat 3 though since the only observation I know of was a 963mb pressure ahead of landfall (it was probably in the high 950s based on the deepening trend).

[brunota2003]

Is it possible Alex is forced south by the ridge, then maybe back out into the Gulf? He definitely appears to of shifted to the SW.

[Bunkertor]

Point blank Hurakan

[SunnyThoughts]

Is it possible Alex is forced south by the ridge, then maybe back out into the Gulf? He definitely appears to of shifted to the SW.

Just when I thought this storm couldn't get any more bizarre lol I couldn't even imagine.

[Andrew92]

Also:

First hurricane in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific, put together, to make landfall in June since 1996 (Boris)

First hurricane in Atlantic by itself to make landfall in June since 1986 (Bonnie)

Landfalls in June are a rare occurrence indeed!

-Andrew92

[bob rulz]

Good call on the Caroline comparison Crazy. It's almost a perfect analogue at Mexico landfall - rapid intensification just before landfall, which was pretty much at the exact same spot, at category 3 intensity (which Alex was obviously very close to). Caroline caused no deaths in Mexico despite destroying a number of small seaside fishing villages.

Like Alex, it is uncertain if Caroline was a real Cat 3 though since the only observation I know of was a 963mb pressure ahead of landfall (it was probably in the high 950s based on the deepening trend).

That's true...and that only makes the comparison even more apt. The only major different really is that Caroline came across Cuba while Alex came across the Yucatan.

[brunota2003]

Landfall intensity was set at 90 knots...advisory was set at 85 knots, per TCD!

[cyclonic chronic]

i dont think many people thought that a hurricane in the 950mb range would be occuring in late june. i agree that the structure over the last 6-8 hrs has looked more like the structure of an aug-sept storm. this came from a wave!!, the last time we saw this was 05. most of the time since its been a stalled front, interaction of someting with a TUTT, or a sub-tropical someting or other (this early). im weary to compare this season with 05, i dont think that we'll see almost every interest turn into a named or numbered system. but i think the "wave train" off africa in aug-sept. to be much more active than the last few years. only my personal opinion. alex is deff. one for the record books, cool storm to track/progress, one of my fav's since rita.

[jabber]

Alex sure seems to be moving more and more south via radar.. where does he think he is going! hehe

Southward movement may be due to frictional activty due to land fall

[mcallum177]

So is this considered a July landfall hurricane or June? Someone posted earlier that it is now July according to UTC time.

[cyclonic chronic]

**eastern eyewall staring to look more intense. wish mex. had the same radar tech. as we do! hellified conditions where the center is making landfall, wouldnt be suprised to find cat 3 damage if winds mixed down to surface in landfall area.


**western eyewall, western eyewall making landfall now