As invest 91L continues to move west with a surface trough extending NE away from the center ... has anyone been paying attention to where the ULH has developed? Pretty much right under the massive area of convection well to the NE of the circ. center ... It's highly unlikely, but not impossible for a piece of energy to break away from that surface trough on the northern end, and form an entirely new entity. This is very speculative and no, I'm not forecasting that to happen (we know #7 did this earlier from the same wave that developed #6). Anyways, take a look at the convection NE of the center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Interesting concerns ...
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Stormsfury
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Interesting concerns ...
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ColdFront77
I agree, Mike. A developing center northeast of the current estimated position of the center has happened in past systems at or around the stage of Invest 91L.
The current forecast track and what the models guidance is currently indicating may change more drastically with this possible low pressure development; but first and foremost, where ever the surface low is and/or ends up being the current model data is easily not intializing the position of the system.
There isn't even a tropical depression yet, which is just as much as a reason that the forecast models are probably not placing the center in right place.
The current forecast track and what the models guidance is currently indicating may change more drastically with this possible low pressure development; but first and foremost, where ever the surface low is and/or ends up being the current model data is easily not intializing the position of the system.
There isn't even a tropical depression yet, which is just as much as a reason that the forecast models are probably not placing the center in right place.
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