ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[lonelymike]

I will miss the late nite model wars between Crock and Ivanhater. No reason to stay up at 2am for a while.

[southerngale]

Someone should make t-shirts...my weather forecasting tool can beat up your weather forecasting tool.

/end sarcasm

[HurricaneBelle]

Someone should make t-shirts...my weather forecasting tool can beat up your weather forecasting tool.

/end sarcasm

LOL...I haven't seen model wars this farcical since Zoolander.

[CajunMama]

Like I said I hope I'm eating Crow Stew later on this week, but I expect Alex to move NNW, then N, then NNE before making landfall.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

CAW! CAW! CAW! CAW! Here's your crow stew earlier than you expected

[thetruesms]

Someone should make t-shirts...my weather forecasting tool can beat up your weather forecasting tool.

/end sarcasm

Why the sarcasm? I'm fairly certain you'd get orders from several in the thread

[bahamaswx]

Looks like the GFDL handled Alex quite well, pegging the northerly motion going into the BOC followed by a bend back to the west better than most.

[littlevince]

There are better models than others, and on average, the ECMWF is better, verified.
But ... the advantage of model X over model Y is on average lower than the error of that model to reality.

The best model that exists is the multi model, several models should always be analyzed and never just one.
Relying on only one model, even the best, can lead to huge forecast errors.

I never understood these flame wars about models. It is good and essential in this science to have different models that think differently, even though some are better than others.

[artist]

There are better models than others, and on average, the ECMWF is better, verified.
But ... the advantage of model X over model Y is on average lower than the error of that model to reality.

The best model that exists is the multi model, several models should always be analyzed and never just one.
Relying on only one model, even the best, can lead to huge forecast errors.

I never understood these flame wars about models. It is good and essential in this science to have different models that think differently, even though some are better than others.

that is true, but what I hate to see is always hugging the models alone. Everything has to be analysed as to whether each model is getting all the current conditions right. Then you can have a better idea of what will really happen. Such as initialization, is the ridge holding, breaking down, etc. as the models depict. So many unseens that the models themselves are pretty good at, yet there is always that element of surprsie with the weather. Though as you say, by combining models it can sometimes sort out what one is not doing well with, but another is.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO bumper stickers have been ordered. Still not to late to get your orders placed!!!

EURO 4 LIFE
EURO is UNO
Honk if you are a EURO lover
EURO is right, you are wrong
EURO told you so
My favorte time of the day is 2pm & 2am

[artist]

EURO bumper stickers have been ordered. Still not to late to get your orders placed!!!

EURO 4 LIFE
EURO is UNO
Honk if you are a EURO lover
EURO is right, you are wrong
EURO told you so
My favorte time of the day is 2pm & 2am

you missed one -
EURO Hugger!

[sandwichpick]

I'd go with "I'm in love with a European model".

[artist]

I'd go with "I'm in love with a European model".

haha, that's good!

[Brent]

I'd go with "I'm in love with a European model".