Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF shows a GOM mischief in ten days.

12z EURO Loop

[Weatherfreak000]

The 12z ECMWF shows a GOM mischief in ten days.

Cycloneye, does this mean the EURO no longer sees the previous GOM development? Are we perhaps looking at an entirely new threat to the GOM?

[cycloneye]

I posted the loop for the members that can see from where it comes from. Comes out from the NW Caribbean tracking a long way before getting there as this comes from the wave now at 35W.

[somethingfunny]

LOL at today's CMC run:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

I knew the CMC had a tendency to spin up ghost storms....this one spins up six that I can count!

NE Gulf, then another on the same front near Bermuda, then one in the Gulf of Panama, one near Trinidad, one near the Virgin Islands, another one off the East Coast, and finally one near the Cape Verde Islands to give us Hermine within 144 hours.

It also spins up one storm in the EPAC.

[KWT]

Sure enough - it has disappeared on the 12Z run:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

now that Alex is out of the way perhaps the 2010 hurricane season will enter the July "quiet period"...

Frank

I wouldn't bet on it, nearly all of the top 8 hurricane seasons had 2-3 storms in July, some had far more then that as well...only 1969 didn't get that and had 1....odds are if conditions stay as condusive as they are we'll get 2-3 storms this July.

Anyway the models do develop or try to develop something along the frontal system...the ECM though has a more likely system in the C.Caribbean...I think that may just be one to watch given what we had with Alex...

[lonelymike]

Well it is ten days out and the models are really not reliable that far out so we'll see.

[USTropics]

I've been watching the ECMWF the past 3-4 days and it has consistently tried to develop the wave currently along 12N 32W as it enters the Caribbean. The earliest runs had it staying more south, close to SA. Then it continually shifted north with each new run, eventually traversing over Cuba in the past few runs (creating a weaker system). The latest (12z), has shifted south again. The NOGAPS has a system forming in the lower central Caribbean around this time as well. Long term, the ECMWF did exceptionally well with Alex, showing a western GOM threat well before any of the other models, so I have to give some credence to this. This wave should be approaching the Caribbean in 4-5 days, so plenty of time to watch it and the models. Additionally, the ECMWF still shows a disturbance forming in the BOC, but appears to currently be the only model supporting this.

[KWT]

I think the thing that interests me is it comes along at the peak of the next forecasted MJO pluse, now of course that could be wrong as well but the MJO has been fairly favourable thus far for big chunks of the last month, no reason for it not to carry on.

[Cyclenall]

LOL at today's CMC run:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

I knew the CMC had a tendency to spin up ghost storms....this one spins up six that I can count!

NE Gulf, then another on the same front near Bermuda, then one in the Gulf of Panama, one near Trinidad, one near the Virgin Islands, another one off the East Coast, and finally one near the Cape Verde Islands to give us Hermine within 144 hours.

It also spins up one storm in the EPAC.

Not only that, but it shows (a hurricane strength?) storm hitting the area of Haiti that got the devastating earthquake. Another thing, didn't the CMC model get tweaking last year so that it performs much better in the tropics?

[USTropics]

Not only that, but it shows (a hurricane strength?) storm hitting the area of Haiti that got the devastating earthquake. Another thing, didn't the CMC model get tweaking last year so that it performs much better in the tropics?

It was (supposedly) the 3rd best performing model for last year. While I wouldn't use it for determining cyclone genesis (let alone strength) by itself, it's decent for overall patterns. As KWT alluded to, the MJO forecast is for upward motion through the middle of July, and the models are hinting at continuing favorable conditions.

[ROCK]

we have lower than normal pressures in the MDR, LA NINA, and high high ssts...

point is very favorable out there...

[Ivanhater]

ooz gfs joins the Euro with a tropical system in the gulf

[Ivanhater]

[xcool22]

next new Euro

[southerngale]

EURO shows something in the Gulf in a week, headed for the middle Texas coast, but it looks weak.

[KWT]

Interesting to see the ECM developing a different system this time...I'm not so sure exactly what the ECM picks up this time, looks like it just develops a LP over South America.

[wxman57]

The wave now along 39W is the one I'm concerned about. MIMIC TPW loop shows quite a bit of moisture and some rotation, not too different from the pre-Alex wave. It's the feature the GFS, CMC and EC are developing. By around the 8th-9th, there is little wind shear forecast for the western Caribbean.

[KWT]

I think the ECM doesn't develop that system Wxman57 on its 00z, it does show something but it develops something else first which moves into the Gulf and I guess that system shears that wave to pieces...it was certainly keen on it on the 12z run though.

[rockyman]

I think the ECM doesn't develop that system Wxman57 on its 00z, it does show something but it develops something else first which moves into the Gulf and I guess that system shears that wave to pieces...it was certainly keen on it on the 12z run though.

I think the precursor system is developed from the wave moving through the extreme SE Caribbean/Venezuela area now. I've been following this wave for a few days here:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108392&start=20

[USTropics]

The ECMWF is still showing slight development of the wave along 39W, but the predominant feature is the system that forms in the BOC, with proximity to each other the likely reason for the wave along 39W not really strengthening much in this run. However, the system that the ECMWF develops in the BOC appears to have to cross the Yucatan, and this could lead to 39W becoming more organized and the dominant feature before the BOC system can get going (if it does at, still appears to be the only model supporting development in the BOC, but has been consistent with this theme). The GFS and NOGAPS models have decreasing shear values in the western Caribbean during this time, and as Wxman57 stated, there is plenty of moisture involved with this wave. I would have to lean more towards the wave along 39W developing, especially after witnessing Alex develop during similar favorable conditions.