ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[tolakram]

Where did the shear go?



I wonder if the models have issues with shear generated from a dying hurricane. Sure looks like the shear monster has been switched off.

[xcool22]

wow no wind shear not good .

[poof121]

wow no wind shear not good .

There is still significant shear, just not as strong as it was.

[N2Storms]

But still plenty of dry air and as the cold front pushes more southward there will be even more dry air to contend with...IMO, this will not be a named system...TD at the very most

[dabears]

oh wow, if this develops Texas could be in trouble again. Texas is getting hammered right now with rain. I'm Austin and Alex is wreaking havoc.

[TexasF6]

@dabears, right??? i just drove through a huge tropical rainstorm!!!!

[Ikester]

Yeah, this may deserve its own thread, but Houston is getting HAMMERED right now with rain. Many areas have received a foot or more of rain. Street flooding becoming a big problem! So many cars stalled out along the feeder roads today coming home from work. There is a lot of moisture out in the gulf still and if anything transpires in the NE gulf and heads our way--Houston, we're gonna have a MAJOR problem...

[KWT]

wow no wind shear not good .

There is still significant shear, just not as strong as it was.

Yeah your still looking at 15-25kts and with a system like this thats already a mess thats not going to be easy to develop in. It has got time on its side though and the more southerly it goes compared to west, the greater shot it has. I don't think developmental chances are that high but at the same time I certainly wouldn't rule out something trying to develop, it is a fairly classic early season evolution.

[StormTracker]

Here is the SFWMD's eye on this system!
Looks like the center of circulation is totally over water now!

[KWT]

Yeah sure looks like that circulation is over water, system heading WSW/SW for now as the front keeps dropping south and weakening. Upper high should soon turn this to the west, where if development is to occur, will occur on that westerly track.

[poof121]

Is it me, or does it look like convection popping up all the way around the LLC? Well, maybe not on the western side, but all the other sides...

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&isingle=multiple&itype=ir

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a LLC has developed

[StormTracker]

The closest buoy(42036)readings @ 3:50pm:
Pressure: 1015.1mb
Winds: 18mph from the SSW
Gusts: 22mph from the SSW
Temps: 84.38f (water)/80.06f (air)
Water Depth: 54.5m

[RachelAnna]

Wow... Crazy development already for this little system.

Just had a couple people call me about this developing storm wondering if the Galveston/Bolivar area should be on the lookout for this storm. Think it has any chance of moving that far west? I know current models don't take it that far west, but just wanted to get some opinions so I can pass them on to those who are already on alert, just wondering if this has a chance of becoming their storm.

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[Fourman]

Wow... Crazy development already for this little system.

Just had a couple people call me about this developing storm wondering if the Galveston/Bolivar area should be on the lookout for this storm. Think it has any chance of moving that far west? I know current models don't take it that far west, but just wanted to get some opinions so I can pass them on to those who are already on alert, just wondering if this has a chance of becoming their storm.

man...I just got home today from Alex. Looks like I need to load up the gear just in case......

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Steve]

In no way shape or form am I predicting development of 95L. I have no idea. But I would like to address the shear issue as relates to early and late season Gulf of Mexico systems.

Too many people get hung up on shear when dealing with hybrid systems in the gulf. Gulf of Mexico "homegrown systems" often form in June, early July and October and are not typically of tropical origin although sometimes interaction with a tropical wave can provide the spin, spark or juice to get something going. Sometimes they come from old fronts or surface troughs, sometimes they're born from a mid or upper level vortex that comes off of land and works its way down to surface low pressure, etc.

The point is, these types of systems are usually butt-up against a shear zone because that it is often the nature of the pattern than they spawn in and what we see in late Spring and early Fall. These systems are often lopsided as a result. What people should be looking for isn't how much shear is present but the reversal of the pattern itself. Often, what is referred to on this board as "classic pattern reversal" will yield the ripe area where you might expect to see tropical or subtropical development. Further, the presence of shear isn't necessarily a limiting factor. It depends on the physical relationship and juxtaposition of the tropical or subtropical system to the shear that determines whether it will help or hinder development. This difference results in the system being "sheared" apart or being ventilated.

Bottom line? Shear is not necessarily a bad thing for systems that either are not or are not entirely spawned of tropical origin. Usually where the shear abates (be it from an upper level low retrograding, the jet stream pulling northward or whatever) you have pattern reversal where an upper high can form over the area that formerly had shear screming over the top. So the key is to watch what happens in those upper levels. If the shear reverses dramatically and there's a piece of energy sitting right there, what appeared to be a hostile environment could suddenly be pretty conducive to development.

[N2Storms]

[quote="RachelAnna"]Wow... Crazy development already for this little system.

Just had a couple people call me about this developing storm wondering if the Galveston/Bolivar area should be on the lookout for this storm. Think it has any chance of moving that far west? I know current models don't take it that far west, but just wanted to get some opinions so I can pass them on to those who are already on alert, just wondering if this has a chance of becoming their storm.[/quote]



I believe the BAMD Model shows it going towards the Hou/Gal area...it is definitely going to be moving west so it definitely bears watching because it would bring plenty of rain to an area that really needs to dry out...

[RachelAnna]

Wow... Crazy development already for this little system.

Just had a couple people call me about this developing storm wondering if the Galveston/Bolivar area should be on the lookout for this storm. Think it has any chance of moving that far west? I know current models don't take it that far west, but just wanted to get some opinions so I can pass them on to those who are already on alert, just wondering if this has a chance of becoming their storm.

I believe the BAMD Model shows it going towards the Hou/Gal area...it is definitely going to be moving west so it definitely bears watching although because it would bring plenty of rain to an area that really needs to dry out...

Thanks! I saw that the BAMD Model brought it there, but with so many of the others so heavily concentrated in the NOLA area I didn't even really pay attention to the BAMD. THanks for the input. That is sort of what I passed on with no offiical knowledge of how these systems work...just an interest! We'll keep an eye out! Hopefully it doesn't develop at all, as some are suggesting, because I know alot of the Gulf Coast is pretty soggy right now!