ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[Ikester]

I'm more impressed by the omega block that is CLEARLY visible on the WV over the southern US. PW's here in Houston were at 3.7" today! That is the highest I've ever seen.

[psyclone]

i don't think this amounts to anything development-wise... too much shear and mid and upper level dry air all the way into the gulf. even the "southern" low southwest of tampa has been unable to generate deep convection despite its location deep in the moisture zone. it is currently a swirl of sprinkles. with PWATS at insane levels, even if they fall back somewhat we'll have plenty of moisture for daily convection over peninsular florida. it's looking like a rather wet weekend.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT...IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[blp]

Vorticity is impressive.

[KWT]

Really the odds of development are probably around near 0% rather then 10% right now, it has got decent vorticity but thats about it.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[rockyman]

Question: could 95L weaken the ridge enough to allow the SW Caribbean disturbance to move into the central or eastern Gulf (instead of the predicted West Gulf/BOC track)?

[wxman57]

Obs across the Gulf this morning indicate that the surface low is dissipating. Pressures are up as well. Plenty of dry air aloft now encircles the system. Development chances are not zero, but they're not much higher than zero.

[ronjon]

Interesting that the GFS pulls the wave in the SW caribbean through the straits and into the central GOM which gets entrained into this low pressure in a couple of days. Actually, this low pressure looks more vigorous then yesterday - still attached to the front and lots of dry air around - shear doesn't seem to be a problem. Probably won't develop but you never know when low pressure sits and spins over the GOM for several days. It's also positioned near the loop current.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[lostsole]

I too do not think any development is going to happen now. It is too clear and cool here on the coast. The air is the driest I have felt in months, gonna be a great day to go to the beach and get oily!

[rockyman]

95L is trying to fire convection near the center this morning, and the convection is getting shunted to the south, though not as fiercely as it was 36 hours ago (shear is now 20-30 knots instead of 40-50)

[HurricaneBelle]

Will this develop? I've added a helpful pie chart:

[wxman57]

There does appear to be some support for a weak circulation from obs offshore now. But winds around this small vortex are only 10 kts today (15 kts yesterday). Pressure 1012mb. Near 27.3N/87.7W. Development chances close to zero:

[nashrobertsx]

Boy this thing must really suck.. no one is talking about it.
LOL

[cycloneye]

Recon for today has been canceled but they still have missions planned for Sunday and Monday if needed.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 03 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHERN GULF)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 90.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 05/0445Z
D. 28.5N 91.0W
E. 05/0515Z TO 05/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 03/1800Z AND 04/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1200Z.

[Frank P]

well as bad as this thing has looked in the past, it actually is trying to fire off some convection to the south and east, gonna be lopsided if anything does come out of this.. also, attm does not appear to be moving as fast as it has the past 24 hours.. could be slowing down.. which could add some more interest...

[HURAKAN]

Looks better but still doesn't amount to much

[Sanibel]

The Low dragged some dry air from the front in behind it.


I think maybe the Gulf was shaken-up enough by Alex to cool the SST's.

[HURAKAN]

The Low dragged some dry air from the front in behind it.

I think maybe the Gulf was shaken-up enough by Alex to cool the SST's.

Alex didn't affect the NGOM. Temps up there are the warmest

[HURAKAN]

Strong vorticity