Tropical Wave in western Caribbean--CODE YELLOW 10%
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The 12z GFS and CMS pull this energy up through the Yucatan Channel and into the NW Gulf:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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- KFDM Meteorologist
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The CMC, GFS, and Euro all agree on the general idea of pulling this energy from the SW Caribbean north and west, with varying degrees of intensity. Of course, the deciding factors (as always) will be exactly where and when a center forms.
Last edited by rockyman on Sat Jul 03, 2010 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 73W-77W.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE. IN
ADDITION... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S
OF 16N TO PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
77W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FURTHER W OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 82W-85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N77W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO APPROACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS DUE TO THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1727.shtml?
CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 73W-77W.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE. IN
ADDITION... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S
OF 16N TO PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
77W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FURTHER W OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 82W-85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N77W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO APPROACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS DUE TO THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1727.shtml?
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- wx247
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I don't think it will be too long before this is an invest... as always, just my $.04.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Strong divergence, but there is clearly shear present on the eastern side...it really is a similar system to Alex.
The whole lot should lift out and I think the chance of some sort of development is decent. Upper high is shunted off to the west of the system, just like it was with Alex.
I'd think there is an ok risk of development and going on to become a NS but I'd be surprised if it gets as strong as Alex did
The whole lot should lift out and I think the chance of some sort of development is decent. Upper high is shunted off to the west of the system, just like it was with Alex.
I'd think there is an ok risk of development and going on to become a NS but I'd be surprised if it gets as strong as Alex did
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 15N ALONG 75W WILL MOVE NW
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON...AND W TO INLAND
BELIZE AND HONDURAS LATE MON INTO TUE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS
JUST ENTERED THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 15N ALONG 75W WILL MOVE NW
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON...AND W TO INLAND
BELIZE AND HONDURAS LATE MON INTO TUE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS
JUST ENTERED THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS
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Re: Tropical Wave in SW Caribbean
There could be some twist south of Jamaica but it could be satellite illusion.
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Re: Tropical Wave in SW Caribbean
Why havent we seen a new invest here if HPC is closing off a low?
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Probably because it isn't developed enough yet or have a centeral region of convection for long enough to really merit an upgrade...plus it seems a lot of time if there is model support for development the ystem is more likely to get an invest status...at the moment its really only the ECM/CMC which do anything much with this.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave in SW Caribbean
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG

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- brunota2003
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