Tropical Wave in western Caribbean--CODE YELLOW 10%

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#41 Postby rockyman » Sat Jul 03, 2010 1:33 pm

I think this wave and the one farther out are being developed by the models.

Watching the 5-day 850mb vorticity loop, I see that this wave has combined with the existing energy in the SW Caribbean, and is being to pull away from the ITCZ:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 4java.html
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#42 Postby rockyman » Sat Jul 03, 2010 1:36 pm

The 12z GFS and CMS pull this energy up through the Yucatan Channel and into the NW Gulf:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
0 likes   

User avatar
KFDM Meteorologist
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1314
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 9:52 pm
Location: Upper Texas Coast/Orange County

#43 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Jul 03, 2010 1:38 pm

12Z EURO has landfall next Sat. at Brownsville.
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#44 Postby rockyman » Sat Jul 03, 2010 1:46 pm

The CMC, GFS, and Euro all agree on the general idea of pulling this energy from the SW Caribbean north and west, with varying degrees of intensity. Of course, the deciding factors (as always) will be exactly where and when a center forms.
Last edited by rockyman on Sat Jul 03, 2010 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Hurricane Alex

#45 Postby Hurricane Alex » Sat Jul 03, 2010 1:50 pm

This is like a second Alex! Except further north!
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#46 Postby rockyman » Sat Jul 03, 2010 1:53 pm

Another general idea from the models is FASTER = more NE, SLOWER = more SW
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#47 Postby rockyman » Sat Jul 03, 2010 2:05 pm

Wind shear less than 10 knots over far western Caribbean

Image
Last edited by rockyman on Sat Jul 03, 2010 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#48 Postby rockyman » Sat Jul 03, 2010 2:15 pm

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 73W-77W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE. IN
ADDITION... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S
OF 16N TO PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
77W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FURTHER W OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 82W-85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N77W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO APPROACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS DUE TO THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1727.shtml?
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#49 Postby rockyman » Sat Jul 03, 2010 3:52 pm

Potential increasing:

Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 41
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:

#50 Postby wx247 » Sat Jul 03, 2010 4:01 pm

I don't think it will be too long before this is an invest... as always, just my $.04.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Re: Tropical Wave in SW Caribbean

#51 Postby rockyman » Sat Jul 03, 2010 4:10 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#52 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 03, 2010 4:16 pm

Strong divergence, but there is clearly shear present on the eastern side...it really is a similar system to Alex.

The whole lot should lift out and I think the chance of some sort of development is decent. Upper high is shunted off to the west of the system, just like it was with Alex.

I'd think there is an ok risk of development and going on to become a NS but I'd be surprised if it gets as strong as Alex did
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#53 Postby rockyman » Sat Jul 03, 2010 4:25 pm

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 15N ALONG 75W WILL MOVE NW
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON...AND W TO INLAND
BELIZE AND HONDURAS LATE MON INTO TUE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS
JUST ENTERED THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: Tropical Wave in SW Caribbean

#54 Postby Sanibel » Sat Jul 03, 2010 4:52 pm

There could be some twist south of Jamaica but it could be satellite illusion.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#55 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 03, 2010 5:14 pm

Image

HPC showing an Alex's-like track
0 likes   

Weatherfreak000

Re: Tropical Wave in SW Caribbean

#56 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Jul 03, 2010 5:31 pm

Why havent we seen a new invest here if HPC is closing off a low?
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#57 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 03, 2010 5:36 pm

Probably because it isn't developed enough yet or have a centeral region of convection for long enough to really merit an upgrade...plus it seems a lot of time if there is model support for development the ystem is more likely to get an invest status...at the moment its really only the ECM/CMC which do anything much with this.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#58 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 03, 2010 6:35 pm

Image

Vorticity keeps increasing
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145343
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Tropical Wave in SW Caribbean

#59 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 03, 2010 6:35 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#60 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Jul 03, 2010 6:38 pm

I would expect this area will become 96L by tomorrow morning/afternoon.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 19 guests