ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[Weatherfreak000]

What is pro met opinion on wind shear? In 24 hours could it be more favorable?

[HURAKAN]

What is pro met opinion on wind shear? In 24 hours could it be more favorable?

If this is true, it's decreasing

[HURAKAN]

popping

[rockyman]

There appears to be another MLC to the east of our low level swirl...around 85W...If that area could work down to the surface and pull the LLC to the east, the shear would be somewhat less

[ronjon]

Could get interesting down the road as that moisture over the western caribbean is making a beeline north into the central GOM. Some convection firing east and south of the LLC. Latest 12Z GFS actually entrains the moisture from the western caribbean wave over the next 2 days and spins up a 1008 mb low pressure that slowly migrates to the Texas coast. The caribbean wave may actually provide some enhancement for this thing to develop down the road.

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmm looks like 95L is trying to get going. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE TODAY. THE LOW IS LOCATED
ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.
ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...A SMALL RELAXATION OF THESE WINDS COULD RESULT IN
BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[brunota2003]

In this case, because it is so weak, we could see whatever is left of the LLC jump into the convection (or at least after it).

[Cryomaniac]

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological or otherwise. As such it should not be used for any purpose

It certainly looks as if it's trying to develop, but whether it actually will is a different matter.

[HURAKAN]

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

Posted by: JeffMasters, 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010
A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.

[wxman57]

Satellite loop indicates a large upper-level low atop the weak surface low. Pressures look a little higher around the low than 3 hours ago. Such a system would need quite a long time over warm water in low shear to develop, and time is something it doesn't have. Should move ashore into Louisiana tomorrow night and be a rain-maker.

[Hurricane Alex]

I personnaly don't think 95L has a chance. Like wxman57 said, It will be moving on shore soon. If it had more time then it might..but i think this will mainly be a rain-maker.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 95, 2010070318, , BEST, 0, 274N, 876W, 25, 1013, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[ToxicTiger]

If it had more time then it might..but i think this will mainly be a rain-maker.

Wouldn't there have to be some convection associated with 95L for it to qualify as a rainmaker? If this were directly over my house right now, it would not even keep me out of the swimming pool.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Hurricane Alex]

Latest

Nice pic. Just wondering, what kind of clouds make up those LL swirls? Not te convection, the naked swirl.

[HURAKAN]

48 hours

[wxman57]

If it had more time then it might..but i think this will mainly be a rain-maker.

Wouldn't there have to be some convection associated with 95L for it to qualify as a rainmaker? If this were directly over my house right now, it would not even keep me out of the swimming pool.

Once it moves ashore daytime heating will help build significant convection around the weak low. Maybe not a widespread heavy rain event, though.

[LSU2001]

I know down here in Cut Off we are getting a ton of rain off of this disturbance. The storms are moving east to west which is a definite sign of something circulating in the gulf. I would estimate that we have gotten 2-3 inches of rain in the past 1 to 1.5 hours. Looking at the visible sat pics you can clearly see the circulation feeding moisture into the state. I hope that the predictions above don''t come to fruition because we are already waterlogged from Alex and the T-storms today.
Tim