Strong tropical wave near Africa

[HURAKAN]

Another strong tropical wave leaves Africa

[BigA]

They're slowly creeping up in latitude. Still early, but if I recall, the MJO is supposed to be favorable between the Lesser Antilles and Africa in the 5-10 day period.

[TheBurn]

[Gustywind]

[ConvergenceZone]

Sooner or later these waves are going to get going. I'm still amazed at this convective train we've had coming off the coast of Africa. Wave after wave after wave.

[Gustywind]

Sooner or later these waves are going to get going. I'm still amazed at this convective train we've had coming off the coast of Africa. Wave after wave after wave.

Agree with you even if i was on the same thought in my recents posts the week before, this train has never give up impressive!

[Gustywind]

[bob rulz]

Wow, this one poofed in like record time.

[Gustywind]

Wow, this one poofed in like record time.

Hopefully poof-test is not good with this one in this area... for this time, but as the season goes the chances are becoming higher for sure (climatologically speaking).

[gatorcane]

Wow, this one poofed in like record time.

Doesn't surprise me. I don't care how active the season is expected to be, getting these waves to develop this far out in the Atlantic this early is quite uncommon mostly because of high SAL and poor upper-level support for tropical cyclogenesis. In the far eastern Atlantic, the timeframe for watching for development (which could potentially form a system to impact land areas farther west in the Atlantic) is between Aug. 15 - Sept. 15, about 4 weeks or so. Of course farther west in the Western part of the MDR (Mean Development Region between Lesser Antilles and Africa), we can expand that to probably Aug - Sept. and probably include the second half of July this year due to the higher than normal SSTs there. So in a couple of weeks from now, may want to start paying more attention to the area near and East of the Lesser Antilles

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree gator, at the alarming rate these waves are poofing into nothingness, I don't see us getting anything out of othe waves for about another month to month and 1/2 or so. I also agree on your time window as well. Looks like any CV storms will be developing from about the middle of August to the middle of September. Getting rid of the adverse conditions(Sal and Dry air) isn't going to happen overnight. It will take quite a bit of time. In about 5 weeks though, conditions should have improved to allow some of these waves to stay together.

[hurricaneCW]

I wish these waves would develop, my favorite kinds of storms are long trackers, none of that western Caribbean, Bay of Campeche, or Gulf of Mexico nonsense. It's so much fun watching where they will go and how they develop over a long time. I have a feeling that this season will be a sequel to 2005 meaning most will be home grown systems. The sequel to 2005 means that this season will be of less caliber than that season but still quite active as we've seen with Alex already.

I agree that it will take until August for the waves to hold together and so far I see nothing out of the ordinary with regards to climatology. The shear levels and the dry air are all at climatological levels. The only thing that separates this year with the standard to the lower than normal pressures in the gulf and Caribbean and the above normal sea surface temperatures. That alone is enough to produce more storms than an average season but I think this year will be more about quality not quantity. I don't think we'll see 18+ storms but rather more big time storms, storms with a lot of power. That is after all what high water temperatures and lower pressures prelude to.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agreee that quantity wise, I don't see anyway how this year will rival 2005. Especially based on the conditions that are out there now. It's going to take time for the conditions to change, so while we may get some intense storms still this year, I don't think "quantity" wise 2010 will have a chance of competing with 2005.

[cycloneye]

I know Sandy that this thread is not for the wave now emerging but for the other one ahead but man,this one emerging looks very good,however, the test will come now as it deals with a different enviroment.

[alan1961]

The whole area looks to be expanding, the strongest
convection in the centre looks to be fizzleing a little
but generally it seems to be holding on better than
the previous waves..thats usually the kiss of death!

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?countr ... &type=loop

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, so far it hasn't poofed completely like the othe waves did when they moved offl. but as you mentioned the test is whether it will hold it together now that it has come offshore. I think over the next few weeks, the waves will hold together more and more. If we have this type of convective train in August, then August is going to be an incredibly busy month.

[Fego]

At 1500 UTC..



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[KWT]

Firstly the Gulf/Caribbean pretty much is the region to watch till perhaps the last few days of July, then you can take the CV region more seriously, I think the fact we are on invest 96L in early July shows that its been reasonably active, even if most of those haven't quite made it yet, its clear to see once things get more condusive we are going to get some interesting systems....

This wave does have a rather interesting look to it!

[BigA]

Don't want to threadjack, but there is another good-looking wave coming off Africa around 10 north. It seems to be building convection now, despite being over water. If a good portion of said convection is still there in 24 hours, it might be something to watch.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm not going to comment on these emerging waves anymore, because usually my posts read something like this.

Friday: "Wow, look at that nice wave emerging off of Africa"
Saturday Morning: "Now that it's offshore, it seems to be really losing convection"
Saturday Evening: "Poof"

wash, rinse, repeat
wash, rinse, repeat
wash, rinse, repeat
wash, rinse, repeat