Tropical Wave in western Caribbean--CODE YELLOW 10%

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanks Cyclone for the TWO posting....Looks like we are in business. Or as they say i sports, "We are on the board"

Should be tagged for an invest shortly I would think. Although I suppose they could wait until tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

96L should be here soon

[redfish1]

Texas may have another one to watch out for this upcoming week. If this was to form about what time of the week could someone be looking at landfall?

[Portastorm]

Texas may have another one to watch out for this upcoming week. If this was to form about what time of the week could someone be looking at landfall?

Most of the modeling seems to suggest about 6-7 days from now (i.e. next weekend).

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like this might be another busy thread if this does get going......Of course it's too early to call now.

[cycloneye]

Looks like this might be another busy thread if this does get going......Of course it's too early to call now.

Well,if it becomes a invest, this thread will be locked

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS
ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MOISTURE MAXIMUM.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS MOST OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEST OF 75W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[redfish1]

any ideas when they will call this an invest??

[Portastorm]

12z Euro seems to have a track very similar to Alex as has already been said.

The 12z CMC shows landfall near Port Isabel (slightly north-northeast of Brownsville)

The 12z GFS shows a weaker system eventually moving west onto the south Texas coastline

Fun, fun, fun.

[HURAKAN]

any ideas when they will call this an invest??

My guess, at any minute

[rockyman]

Is this the link? It's dead for now, but "refresh" is working haha

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Nimbus]

Persistent convection today with a major convective flare up this evening. This thread will probably be locked soon but its good to get the invest 96 initialization here in talking tropics.

[stormchazer]

any ideas when they will call this an invest??

It may not get called one. Just have to see if it persist.

[BigA]

Here's the 18z WRF. Doesn't develop it into anything epic, but moves a closed low into the GOM in a few days.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... f_slp.html

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree. Should be an invest shortly. All indications from the models in the long-range (except the CMC which is an outlier so will disregard it right now), show a general W to WNW movement through the Yucatan and into the BOC with some slow development. Looks like most models bring the area south of Texas (even more South than where Alex made landfall).

I am going to to say that this may become a depression before going into the Yucatan, then re-emerge with a chance of becoming a TS in the BOC, impacts to Mexico, south of Texas -- intensity nowhere near what Alex was.

[HURAKAN]

The buoy near the far WCAR is reporting that the pressure is increasing, while the buoy SE of Jamaica reports pressure decreasing.

Link - http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

[ConvergenceZone]

I still think we'll have an invest by sometime tomorrow morning.

[hurricaneCW]

I hope its not a Mexico storm, they have already suffered from Alex. I also wonder if this year will be like 2007 with a lot of low riders into central America and Mexico rather than the United States. If so, than consider ourselves lucky while making those less fortunate suffer the worst.

[cycloneye]

I hope its not a Mexico storm, they have already suffered from Alex. I also wonder if this year will be like 2007 with a lot of low riders into central America and Mexico rather than the United States. If so, than consider ourselves lucky while making those less fortunate suffer the worst.

If by the peak of the season La Nina kicks in between Moderate to Strong,that may well be the favored tracks. See the ENSO Updates thread to see the latest.

[wxman57]

This wave certainly has a better chance of development than 95L. However, it'll have to cross the Yucatan first. Maybe a shot at developing around Wednesday in the BoC. Track may be a little south of Alex in the SW Gulf. Nothing at the surface yet, just a wave axis. Not much turning.